The inception of the Euro and the evolving political and social philosophy of the nations it serves has been almost natural, an experiment in the growth of both, facing challenges as the journey has progressed, addressing the various crisis the best they knew how. It has been an interesting journey so far. God willing, it will continue further to unite the spirit of the European nations, and allow the Euro to successfully become a Reserve Currency. At the moment, of course, the Euro is in its infancy.
In retrospect, questions should have been asked : How could the Maastricht Treaty overlook the printing of the Euro, or the issuing of it? It seems the Euro Area, which was growing in number of member nations and consequently serving a bigger population, was consigned to try and manage on a 'limited budget'. It seems not to have occurred to the powers that be that as they enlisted more members, the size of the pool of capital should have automatically been allowed to grow. That fiscal adjustment to the collective balance sheet of the European Union nations should have been a natural, routine point.
Just imagine : First of all, East and West Germany combined, joining their currency and wealth pools to replace it with the Euro. Remember, they had BMWs in one country, Skodas in the other, now they were going to have similar values. Should the prices in West have been adjusted downwards, and perhaps not adjusted upwards for the East? Was there a middle ground?
When Greece turned all the Drachmas and Gold reserves over to Germany, what calculations were made to allocate them the Euro instead? Was there a scientific system of transferring value?
This is just some simplistic absurd arguments, but you get the point.
It seems the Union kept growing, with more nations surrendering their original monetary units and getting the Euro instead - and this was from the limited pool that was created in the first instance. (The Maastricht Treaty did not have any stipulation for printing or issuing more, and this was only recently looked at whereupon Mr Mario Draghi announced suitable modifications to that policy and authorized printing or issuance of more of the stuff.).
This is food for thought, and can only help in growing the Euro to a powerful, respectable Reserve Currency of the future, and the political and social unification of Europe as something that may be a cohesive, harmonious federation.
In the meantime, it seems the economic jargon utilized may have obfuscated the whole issue, as urgent issues were tackled with the most convenient solutions being thrown at the problems as they arose. Perhaps it may be best to accept that it cannot have been any other way?
Now with hindsight, and some scientific analysis (or even some inspired ideas), hopefully the Euro will grow stronger, the European Union nations feel they were each served equitably by the Euro, and allow the harmonious mingling of the nations combine and celebrate a culture that reflects the unity of all these people, the values they share and their aspirations for a secure, honourable and prosperous future for the E.U. and associated nations.
Certainly with the ECB stimulus in place, there ought to be growing strength and confidence in the future, a rosy future that could hasten the economic Recovery and perhaps take us all to Prosperity, which may be just around the corner.
As for the rest of the world, China and Russia are re-creating the new Silk Road, which should see economic development in a lot of the countries that lie across the route. Logically, there should be good numbers this year, regardless of who becomes President in the U.S. As for Brexit and the Article 50, it seems most probable that the United Kingdom will choose the options that bestow the greatest advantages to themselves. There is a jubilant atmosphere here in the U.K. that things will be more than okay, and we will get the best of the bargain. There seems there will be no lack of goodwill in the U.K. towards all the European nations, and shall continue trading with all these nations on the best terms under the current situation. Brexit will turn into a blessing in disguise, for the U.K. and her friends the other Euro Area and E.U. nations.
I would propose a toast : to the longevity of the Euro, and happy, harmonious times for the European Union and the United Kingdom.
Durudarshan H. Dadlani
(c) Copyright, but may be freely shared and distributed, with acknowledgement.
00:23 hours GMT 30th July 2016 London
Mr Kuroda, the Bank of Japan Governor, has at least authorized the £265 billion stimulus suggested by the Prime Minister, Mr Shinzo Abe. This should work wonders for the world.
In view of the huge stimulus already in place, which perhaps may sink the system eventually, it was good Mr Kuroda has not added to the current stimulus, but just authorized what will be needed for the near future. Of course, the period over which this stimulus would be issued and pumped into the system has not been clarified, but it can be assumed it will last beyond Mr Abe's current term as P.M.
Abenomics proved its success in his first term in office, and it was suggested a second term should be rightfully his, so that he could nurture fully the economic regime in set in place. The results seem to have been good, maintaining Japan's place as the fifth largest economy in the world. There economic influence worldwide is far-reaching and welcomed everywhere. Recently India under PM Narendra Modi-ji borrowed an investment of $35 billion from Japan; of course, they would have obliged him with more, had he just asked. The Japanese bear friendship towards all friendly people, and their circle is bound to grow, with demands for capital in all the developing countries. As well as their marvellous electronics and cars and scooters and weighing machines, Japan is exporting capital. And their stimulus has done a great deal of good around the world, mirroring the stimulus in the U.S. and now in Europe.
In short, all these nations have printed the stuff that keeps the economic momentum going. It would be better still if all that money is loaned out to everybody, to keep their businesses operating in sometimes difficult conditions. (For example, specialist Farm hotel in Tuscany not being able to operate due to temporary lack of customers, and reduced profitability due to withdrawal of E.U. subsidies and local regulations, which of course the E.U. governments need to modify and adapt in tune with today's realities, so that as banks get bailouts they can bailout their customers for the meantime and enable them return to profitability.)
Mr Abe has asked for the £265 billion stimulus to use for government financing, so this will mean a lot of work in the Public Works departments to create infrastructure but also possibly to put some money into people's pockets, in an effort to raise inflation to about 2 percent. This could materialize for them, by giving some social security benefits for couples to start families, perhaps money to low-paid workers to take a holiday (perhaps to Tuscany?) and so on. This money could be dished out to the public directly; about $4000 equivalent in Yen per annum to be spent on each citizen, by way of education, medication, health and social care facilities, but also some for socially useful items as giving people a holiday....that would cheer people up. They have to do something to lift up their spirits after the Fukushima tragedy not so long ago. Once their spirits feel refreshed and restored, things could work out very nicely for them all. For a population of 20 million, they could dish out the stimulus at 80 billion per annum. And once this feeds into the economy, it will create plenty of jobs, give some freebies to the people, and with enhanced expenditure perhaps the inflation will pick up. Who knows? Certainly everyone hopes so. May God's blessings be upon the Japanese people and their friends for a successful deployment of this stimulus. it may do wonders for the world.
Durudarshan H. Dadlani
(c) Copyright, but may be shared and freely distributed, with acknowledgement.
Recently, I read the highly esteemed Emperor of Japan was considering abdicating. I wonder why.
Also, I always hear the news that their population is growing older, but not growing in size.
Most of the young people cannot think of starting families, so expensive it is to maintain a living standard.
If people lose their jobs, they exist very quietly, not calling attention to their status.
On the other hand, I have heard of houses filled with (toy) dolls, because there are no children.
This shows a desire for some kind of "life"
With the huge Stimulus that Japan has started to print plenty of Yen in a semblance of the quantitative easing in the U.S., Mr Kuroda has authorised the issuance of as much as 85 billion (or was it 110 billion?) U.S. Dollar equivalent per month, so their monetary expansion is on par with the U.S.
Forgive my saying, but that is enough money to sink the system.....it is only a matter of time.
The signs are already there : the economy is picking up, the GDP and GNP remain pretty subdued, and all that money is not being borrowed - making it necessary for Japanese banks to offer negative interest rates to depositors, so the savers pay something to keep their money at the banks.
That is a phenomena that is catching up in the rest of the world, especially the mature economies (sometimes referred to as the industrialised world).
More printed money, which is not being borrowed, seems a useless effort......On the other hand, the Yen by itself is stilling strong and rising in value.
Therefore, with all due respect to Mr Kuroda, would it not be the brilliant idea to 'taper' the Stimulus.
Ha, so, cut the amount of money being printed or issued into the system (including electronically).
I believe that should do the trick : Once the Stimulus is cut, the false expectations of free money will disappear. In place, you may see more goods from Japan being imported by other countries : people just look the unbeatable Japanese electronics and TVs, the wizard microwaves, jogging stereos and so on. Why has the Yen been rising so far? - because people are borrowing it as capital.
In the meantime, it may also prove very prudent and necessary measures to increase the amount of social security paid to people, especially the young folks who wish to have children. Some generous measures will be good. For this island nation of some 20 million persons with the 5th largest economy in the world is an amazing fact. They certainly can celebrate life with the highest standard of living in the world, plus generous provision for coming generations, and encouraging people to have children.
Japan is one of the few very lucky nations that can afford to buy everything for their citizens, even overseas, be it houses, cars, food, entertainment, whiskey, brandy, champagne, whatever the people wish for.
Perhaps His Exalted Highness wishes to hand over the state duties to His Son? In the meantime, he could certainly drop this hint to Mr Kuroda, to taper the Stimulus.
Durudarshan H. Dadlani
(c) Copyright, but may be freely shared and translated.
1) Visa-free travel may be one thing, but it is quite another to have some kind of automatic right of stay for an extended period in another country whether for work or study or extended visit to relatives.
In terms of habitable land available, houses available and construction of more, the resources available in terms of potential jobs, medical facilities, schools, training, food, and of course provision of bathrooms and toilets, as well as police and such services, must be taken into account before allowing any more immigration. I believe that part of the E.U. rules will have to be revised and tightened up, to ensure each member nation will only take the number that it can reasonably accommodate and provide for, then they would be welcome.
2) Looking at the Unemployment figures for Spain, it is very good news that the rate has come down from 25pecent to about 20percent. The number of existing home sales has also started to pick up, reducing their inventory of the construction boom that left large number of houses empty. It seems the house prices in Spain must be very favourable for buyers, and with more employment being created perhaps the time will soon come when most of the houses will be occupied, and the market could boom in maybe a year or two. In the meantime, they have some work to do....for example running more buses along the less busy routes into isolated areas....this would encourage people to settle there. And with more people settling there, obviously more trades and service-providers will open up shop or office around there, and perhaps employ apprenetices...this would boost the employment further, and bring some relief and joy in Espana's economic Recovery. May we say Ole! to that.
3) The employment figures for Italy, France and Finaland are showing some deterioration, not good news, hence perhaps the caution from IMF that Europe will be achieving a modest Recovery. The E.C.B. could surely do something with their Stimulus and provide to these economies, to boost up the growth figures? Upgrade of industries, investment into the New Economy (i.e. digital media and means) and perhaps borrowing the idea from Germany (as they have done in the UK) and creating Zero-hour contracts and employing young and old alike would certainly bring a lot of happiness to the citizens.
The national wealth in the form of printed or digitized money can circulate with a better velocity (increase the unemployment and pension benefits, enabling the recipients to spend more and live better) and the economic momentum will start to pick up, resulting in better figures of economic Recovery for these nations (and preserving the whole general upward momentum of the economy of the Euro Area as a whole).
4) When people read of the current debate of the U.K.'s inclination to tighten the Immigration numbers (seeking to implement a points and quota system and abolishing an 'open door' easy entry system), some people will be pointed to look at the availability of jobs in other nations and their eligibility to go and work there, and perhaps settle there. Pigeons go where the grains are, to climes which are suitable for them. Why will it be different for human beings, if I may express it so simply? Rules should be so worded and designed that they mean joy and welcome for law-abiding citizens as well as meeting with the approval of the people of the various nations. An 'open door' policy simply will not work satisfactorily for the citizens, and politicians seeking to advocate such causes will perceivably lose their popularity.
5) Britain's intention to pull out of the European Union will remain a valid discussion and ongoing debate for about the next two and a half years. Whoever becomes the next British Prime Minister (Mrs Theresa May or Mrs Andrea Leadsom) will have to tackle some very complex legislation to (a) satisfy the Remain and Leave sides and (b) kick in Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty for consideration by the E.U. and the respective members' parliaments. Only thereafter upon satisfactory conclusion of such debates could formally Britain submit their proposal to exit the E.U.
- That gives hopes to both halves ( the vote was split 52percent Leave, 48percent Remain) that things will work out amicably and fairly. First and foremost it seems the British would like there to be a clamp down on uncontrolled immigration. Secondly, they would like not to pay or perhaps reduce the Club Fee, which last year for Britain was £8.5billion. In terms of the constant shortfalls in the NHS budgets and reduction of schools, neglect of building council housing and so on, even reduction of children's nursery places, this would be money best spent at home, in Wales and England especially, who voted for Leave. Northern Ireland, Scotland and London voted Remain overwhelmingly. It is anybody's guess whether a partial membership will be required. It may mean a mixed deal, and certainly some very complex scenarios face the United Kingdom in the days ahead. No, it will not break up the Kingdom, but it will mean the writing of some very complex legislation.
- Britain will emerge out of this Referendum as a stronger nation, focused on addressing their shortcomings within the neglected parts of the economy, and building on our strengths where the economy is robust and potential for sustaining it remains undisturbed, such as in London, Scotland and Northern Ireland, with the hopes that any neglect in these parts will also be address under the new Prime Minister.
Predicated on the good common sense of all the people in preserving the sound and useful cultural and economic ties that have developed in the European Union and the Euro Area over the last forty years or so, and to preserve such ties and expand them further for the future, I imagine steady economic growth for all these areas, for the next eighteen months at least. God, our Heavenly Father, and Nature, our magnificent Mother Earth has never disappointed humanity in constantly created abundance at a admirable pace. You have to marvel, and realise that They have never let us down. I say this testimony in the name of Jesus our Saviour and Redeemer. Amen.
(c) Copyright. Durudarshan.
Perhaps it is a blessing in disguise that the British people have a few months to weigh up the likely effects of Brexit before and whether Article 50, Lisbon Treaty, be triggered.
That in any case will not happen before 9th September, when the Conservative Party should have chosen their Leader, and who inter alia will succeed as the Prime Minister. In the meantime, David Cameron, foremost proponent of the Remain campaign, holds fort.
At this stage, it is anyone's guess who will emerge as the new Prime Minister. Will it be Mrs Theresa May, the most highly experienced of the trio still left standing for the office. Or will it be the Leave proponent, Mrs Andrea Leadsom, who has wide experience in the workings of the City financial markets? She has been endorsed by the former odds-on favourite for the job, the light-hearted but mercurial Boris Johnson, who for some reason stood down for the position when he was expected to stand and win it. Michael Gove was the apparent reason Boris Johnson declared himself out of the race. Mr Gove is seen as a determined but confused person, who let Boris down so badly by declaring himself a candidate instead of just supporting the hugely popular BoJo for the job.
The Conservative parliamentarians are going to continue to vote for the trio until one of them drops out by achieving the lowest backing. Thereafter, the remaining two will be put to the ballot of Tory Party registered members, and that postal ballot (shouldn't it be an Internet friendly ballot?) will decide on the victor in this race, thereafter to be appointed Prime Minister.
David Cameron indicated that could be by October; that gives Britons plenty of time to rethink on Brexit.
The media, especially The Sun newspaper, who so very openly advocated a Leave campaign and may have influenced the outcome of this very important Referendum, owe it to the public I believe to weigh up the consequences so the public can take a thoroughly considered view on this issue and decide what would be best. It may be a blessing in disguise that there are a few months before the new Prime Minister is in place, so Article 50 can also be fully understood before some rash decision is made.
Currently, Britain has seen the Pound Sterling drop from 1.48 to 1.29 in a matter of two weeks. That may be good for exports, but a lot of wealth has been written off. Secondly, Denmark and other E.U. nations were proposing to withdraw their FDI in U.K. A number of Real Estate Investment Trusts have suspended trading on the market, and property projects building across London and the U.K. have come to a halt. This is certainly bad news for Britain.
You just have to walk through the Mall in any town and the realisation dawns on you that there is likely to be a slowdown (already is) unless confidence becomes restored in economic security for the foreseeable future. Shops are not busy. If they are busy, people are just window-shopping. People are sitting in the sunshine on the benches outside. The stalls are not attracting too many customers. On a bright day, people don't look too happy. People are careful with their supermarket shopping once more. And not surprising at all. Some shops seem as if they will close unless customers start to return there in numbers. Jewellers, bookshops, clothes retailers, even the High Street favourites, seem a bit quiet, for the time being. And all this is just with the fear of Brexit, which hasn't formally been agreed. What would actually happen in the case of Brexit being formally agreed is anyone's guess.
You know, the Greeks also had a Referendum, on whether to leave the European Union. And they also chose to go for it, and get back their in-de-pendence from the superstate....Then once they realized that their pensions and social security (which are issued in Euros) would not be paid to them if they confirmed their verdict....well, they tactfully changed their minds and said they wanted to have their drachmas back but could not see life without the Euro. Their young Prime Minister Alexis Sipras declared that to the E.U. Ministers, and all was well. The Greek nation received the bailouts from Europe, and the people their money, and all could celebrate with a glass of retsina or ouzo as Europeans, flowers of the same Europa bouquet.
Actually, I believe the European Union can help restore confidence, especially on the issue of Immigration, and then perhaps the British will see the good sense in remaining part of the E.U.
Namely, the people are adamant they do not want any more uncontrolled immigration. As David Cameron has suggested, Britain would like to see immigration only on a points and quota based system, and a closed door policy to freeloaders looking for an easy life. This is something the European nations too have to consider and make part of their policy : can anyone really see any nation accepting so many refugees and migrants from Syria or wherever? There is a growing resentment and not welcome towards these beleaguered people, and of course it would be better to foster peace in their original homelands so they could return there, as soon as practically possible.
If the British people have the reassurance that the E.U. will halt this open doors policy, and not force any member nation to take any more refugees or migrants then they can practically accommodate, then there may be cool heads willing to look at the benefits of remaining part of the Union.
With positive consideration of these matters, it may be possible to have arrangements between the European Union nations to put aside these fears of a recessionary environment and instead enter at a good pace a further period of economic Recovery. All being well, a period of Prosperity could well be in sight, in another eighteen months or so, with all the wheels oiled in the E.U. and the Euro Area nations. The Pound Sterling being a Reserve currency of huge repute does of course provide a 'mirror' for the Euro, which is still in its infancy in that regard. Co-operation and support between all nations would provide mutual benefit, that I sincerely believe. In a global inter-dependent world, no nation can afford to become isolationist or inward-looking. To the contrary, all nations have to engage in open debate and pursue agendas where they have similar objectives and could harness synergy through amicable co-operation. For that understanding, I pray.
Durudarshan H. Dadlani
(c) Copyright, but may be freely copied and shared, with acknowledgement.