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The news must be disquieting, that Mme Dilma Roussef has been suspended from both houses of parliament, and had to vacate the Presidential Palace.  Pending her impeachment, she is being allowed to stay in the Presidential quarters to prepare her case against the impeachment.  To Mme Roussef, this is no pre-impeachment move, this is a coup no less, she has been removed from office without any ceremony.  There are wide-spread protests around the country, especially in Brasilia, Mme Roussef's supporters are furious at this treatment.      I pray their demonstrations will be peaceful, although of course they are bound to be vociferousand loud.  If they introduce some music, it will be no bad thing.  But I pray they will maintain decorum and ceremony to enable their Summer Games take place without disruption.  The must ensure they win the goodwill of the world, who will be participating at the Games.       - noted 13th May 2016   (Previous note is kept below :
The moves against Mme Dilma Roussef to impeach her must seem as an unwanted thorn at her side.  Not only it is before the Summer Olympics in Rio in which the nation has invested their
heart and soul, but also because Mme Roussef considers her accusers as the ones who are guilty and corrupt. I pray they will not bother her, at least until after the Games. The Summer Olympics will bring Brazil all the goodwill of the world, which they seek, and any acrimony had best be put aside.
I pray Mr Temer will extend this grace and courtesy to his nation and all the people of Brazil.

Welcome to readers from Redmond, Ashburn and Virginia! From the numbers, it seems clear that Hillary for America and the bombastic but likeable billionaire The Donald will contest for the Presidency. (Both Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders seem to be 'mathematically eliminated')  You know who to back, so why not make it big time?
(c) Durudarshan  7:57am GMT  3rd May 2016  London



A supercycle of growth for BRICS nations

The meeting of the BRICS leaders in Sao Paolo on 15th July saw the announcement of the New Development Bank.  This will be capitalised
to the tune of U.S.$100 Billion initially, to spur infrastructure growth
in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, and also to help other developing countries. 
 
The first Presidency has been given to India, and its operations are to be headquartered in New Delhi.

At this auspicious announcement were Brazil's President Mme Dilmia Roussef,
Russia's President Putin, India's PM Narendra Modi, China's Hon. Xi Jinping,
and South African President Jacob Zuma.

I expect a supercycle of infrastructure growth in all these nations, and stocks likely to motor ahead will be in related fields and the banking sector.
17th July 2014, London.



Benchmark Interest Rate, Industrial Production

What about the Central Bank rate in BRICS nations?
Needs to be cut, down to about 6 percent, to avert global slowdown.
Especially in India and Russia, but also in Nigeria.
Cuts of 50 or more basis points are necessary with swift action.
A lower rate and easier borrowing will empower consumers and spur growth.

Although Industrial Production in India has gone down, consumption is
positive, and PM says Indians have high savings and investment, and expects
growth rate of 6 percent or more for this year.  In real terms, people with savings will be better off in the long-term if the economy grows with help of lower interest rates. Therefore, an RBI rate cut would help.

Really it is amazing that India's debt is 5.3 percent of GDP.  That is
internationally enviable, and allows ample scope to cut the benchmark interest rate.  Such a solid fiscal picture deserves a Golden AAA rating, no less. 10/10/12


High input costs create inflation.  High interest is a high input.
A cut in the repo rate would help the Indian economy regain its balance.
75 to 100 basis points would not be out of place.
Are they likely to do such a reduction?  Who knows.
If the RBI were to cut the rate soon, the whole world community can celebrate Diwali nicely.
 
The price of Oil

In view of adequate supplies of Oil on the market, and less custom, the Saudi oil ministry have reduced their production by some 406,000 barrels a day for July.  The price has come down a little bit, but there is scope for more reductions so that ultimately the consumers can afford it.  That would restore demand and increase the Opec nations' revenues.  11th September 2014  London


What is happening with the price of Oil?
Needs to be down to $85 WTI so there is no further demand-destruction.
Now it's very wrong at WTI $97.  Sustained period of 6 months will
aid worldwide jobs growth and Recovery. Brent at $115, are they kiddin?
A few days does not 6 months make; Oil price needs to head south,
otherwise lot of economies will become basket cases. 10/10/12
 
Oil has gone up to $107 WTI and $110 Brent in view of worsening
situation in Syria.  This poses a dilemma for the world economy.
27th August 2013

Mr Herro of Harris Bank says oil is overpriced, considering it is produced
at $70-80 a barrel.  Once Syria tensions are over, scope price will fall.  6/9/13
Mr Fadel Gheit, economist at Oppenheimer, too is of the opinion that
Oil needs to be down below $85 to sustain economic Recovery.  11/9/14.

I note now Oil is hovering around the $80-$85 per barrel mark, and would suggest this is a reasonable level.  It is unlikely to fall any further for any length of time, the economic dictates of the Oil industry would see to that.
26th October 2014,  London



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Please read my Blog for my latest views.  www.durudarshan.co.uk/blog  
These are historical views now,but retained here for your perusal and entertainment.

 
 Caveat, trade at your own risk
What will happen to the price of Gold? 
 Medium term: Range of $1600 - $1750.
- Well, seems to be stuck around 1400 for the moment. 26/8/13


     ============================================================
        I have a view about the gold price, that will impact the market in a
        big way in about six months time.  To buy my tips on the price of gold,
        please visit :   www.goodshowtradingltd.com
     ============================================================


 
The fiscal cliff resolution and the Debt Ceiling in February suggested some upward movement, although the dynamics suggest a cooling of tensions and a 'no debate' on the Debt Ceiling, so gold price may remain subdued for a while, but not for long.
 
 
The Fiscal Cliff and Debt Ceiling scenario 2013
The fiscal cliff in the U.S. seems something for the Senate to resolve, whether the elegant resolution proposed by Ben Bernanke can be pursued.  It seems so humane and magnanimous, it would do well with implementation. As for the Debt Ceiling question in February, that will probably necessitate a One Trillion U.S. Dollars raise, enough to create eight million jobs within a year, ranging in pay from 30K to 250K,
that hopefully will create enough economic momemtum to help the world.
 
U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew says the current Debt Ceiling may 
 be reached In October, calling for a fresh raise.  27th August 2013.
 
The prevailing opinion in the press, political and economic circles today
is that the Debt Ceiling will be raised by (a) by-partisan
co-operation in the Congress; or, failing that, by
(b) Presidential Prerogative to be exercised by President Obama under the
14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. 5th Oct 2013. London.
 
Where is the Eurozone headed?
A consolidation phase, where the aegis of the Euro will offer best deal.
For long-term fiscal stability, the ECB is not going to print money and
throw into the market.  That, if anything, should make the currency
stronger, although speculators would have preferred an easy solution.
10/10/12
Greece seems happier with it, so too does Spain, Portugal and Italy.
Now, Germany has shown its goodwill, so it is upto the Southern economies
to make the best of what they have and improve things for their people.
As margins are adjusted, Bonds improve.Good for the nations.
Mme Merkel has created harmony and goodwill for the Eurozone
and all the people.
 
Lot of people were fully expecting PM Mariano Rajoy to ask for a bailout of 40 Billion Euros, to recapitalise the banks. He is looking for the best rate.  If he is offered the best rate now, perhaps the log-jam can be avoided. 24/10/12
Spain is likely to receive 39.5 billion on 12th December.
Think of it this way, a sum of 40 Billion is being introduced into the economies each month.  If Spain takes it now, next maybe Italy or Cyprus?
Greece has already received two massive bailouts, and haircuts, so unlikely anything additional could be expected by them.  They just have to cheer up and get on with rebuilding their trade, tourism and exports. 11/11/2012.
 
There are green shoots of Recovery in Spain - 27th August 2013.
 
 
What is happening with the price of Oil?
Needs to be down to $84 WTI so there is no further demand-destruction.
Now it's very wrong at WTI $97.  Sustained period of 6 months will
aid worldwide jobs growth and Recovery. Brent at $115, are they kiddin?
A few days does not 6 months make; Oil price needs to head south,
otherwise lot of economies will become basket cases. 10/10/12
 
Oil has gone up to $107 WTI and $110 Brent in view of worsening
situation in Syria.  This poses a dilemma for the world economy.
27th August 2013
Mr Herro of Harris Bank says oil is overpriced, considering it is produced
at $70-80 a barrel.  Once Syria tensions are over, scope price will fall.  6/9/13
 
What about the Central Bank rate in BRICS nations?
Needs to be cut, down to about 6 percent, to avert global slowdown.
Especially in India and Russia, but also in Nigeria.
Cuts of 50 or more basis points are necessary with swift action.
A lower rate and easier borrowing will empower consumers and spur growth.
Although Industrial Production in India has gone down, consumption is
positive, and PM says Indians have high savings and investment, and expects
growth rate of 6 percent or more for this year.  In real terms, people with savings will be better off in the long-term if the economy grows with help of lower interest rates. Therefore, an RBI rate cut would help.
Really it is amazing that India's debt is 5.3 percent of GDP.  That is
internationally enviable, and allows ample scope to cut the benchmark interest rate.  Such a solid fiscal picture deserves a Golden AAA rating, no less. 10/10/12
High input costs create inflation.  High interest is a high input.
A cut in the repo rate would help the Indian economy regain its balance.
75 to 100 basis points would not be out of place.
Are they likely to do such a reduction?  Who knows.
If the RBI were to cut the rate soon, the whole world community can celebrate Diwali nicely.
 
How much minimum investment per client is right amount for my Trading Fund?
I am keen to hear your views... Please write on Guest Book page, below.
 
The Fiscal Cliff and Debt Ceiling scenario 2013
The fiscal cliff in the U.S. seems something for the Senate to resolve,
whether the elegant resolution proposed by Ben Bernanke can be pursued.
It seems so humane and magnanimous, it would do well with
implementation.  As for the Debt Ceiling question in May,
that will probably necessitate a 1T raise, enough to create
eight million jobs ranging from 30K to 250K, within a year,
that hopefully will create enough economic momemtum to help the world.
 
My view on the Debt Ceiling question (August 2011)
They have agreed on the debt ceiling being raised.
The question of a US default does not arise. If a more harmonious raising of the ceiling is achieved thru co-operation of both sides, then a better credit-rating will be maintained, resulting in added confidence, and a continuation of the economic Recovery, which the whole world greatly desires
and cherishes. 
The U.S. Banking System is stated to have $1.45 Trillion collectively and the US currency says In God We Trust.
The population has grown 9.8 pc over the last ten years so some Convention allows for an increase of half of that, at 4.9 pc equating to 700 Billion.  This could be rolled out as Quantitative Easing.
Bingo! That creates a solid foundation of $2.15Trillion! China and other nations will come in with some more. Word from China reassures on that. I hope people will be celebrating on 3rd August, as
the debt ceiling issue gets resolved as a very momentuous day, by the grace of God.
 
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