I pay some attention to a Chartered Market Technician giving his take on the probability of the stock market index giving a clue as to who will be the next U.S. President.
The crucial period to watch will be between August and October, according to Craig Johnson, of Piper Jaffray, Minneapolis. Craig's commentary of the technical analysis charts is interesting and very useful to follow up or discard.
According to the interview he did on Bloomberg with Adam Johnson and Alix Steel on 12th July, if the U.S. market goes up during August to October, the probability is very high that President Obama will be re-elected.
On the other hand, if the market falls during that period, then the probability of Senator Romney becoming President becomes high.
These are probabilities, based on figures from the past. Regardless, nothing is inevitable, but the market mood and sentiment will be very influential, perhaps to create a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Interesting times ahead.