The U.S. has reached the fiscal cliff, amidst a moderate Recovery.
China seems to be cooling down, despite a huge population and tremendous pent up demand.
India the industrial production, after a slump to minus 1.8 percent in June, has barely picked up in July, to a figure of a paltry 0.1 percent.
In my opinion the factor affecting all these economies is the price of Oil. Unlike other hard commodities, Oil once used disappears into thin air. The growth of the world is in inverse proportion to the price of Oil, as this is the most potent of the key macro-drivers.
Recent prices of $96 for WTI and $112 for Brent Ice are somewhat fanciful, confirmed by Saudi Oil Minister Sheikh Ali Al-Naimi on Monday this week. There is adequate supply and stockpiles, so no logical reason for the price to be at these levels.
Essentially, Oil price sucks money out of all the economies. When it is high, there is less in the household or company or country's budgets for other things, and everything becomes squeezed.
Even on the technical charts, the prices seem over-extended, so I believe a downward correction is now due.
In the long-term, a lower Oil price will ensure that Recovery stays on track for all, Europe, China, India, Africa, Middle East, U.S., South America, Australia, Russia, everybody.
It is up to the dealers to ensure an affordable, fair price, so that normal expansion may continue and save all from a scenario people don't want.