Without giving anyone false hope, I think it is very possible by the end of the year, regardless of who is President of U.S.A., whether it is Mr Obama or Mr Romney.
As in most Presidential Election years, the markets have followed a similar pattern, being now up in this the third quarter. Following this, the fourth quarter is very likely to be upwards also.
Housing in the U.S. seems to have started to firm up at the bottom levels, and there has been a slight upwards gradient since early this year. With the 30-year mortgages at a record low, this is very likely to help enable people buy their homes which now seem to be at an affordable level of price, job security and income sustainability permitting. What a boon it would be if somehow house mortgages were tied in with employment, perhaps offered by the major employers?
Mr Bernanke's announcement of the QE3, at $40 billion per month on an ongoing basis, is likely to help, especially as a good part of the allocation will be used currently for mortgage backed securities. The creation of a national bank of mortgage provider would assist the cause greatly.
Regarding Europe, the bond purchasing measures announced by the ECB seem to need the blessing from Germany. Once that is granted, things will start to motor onwards and upwards in Europe also.
My blog has received a lot of visitors from China recently. The Chinese Paralympians and Olympians did
spectacularly well, and are to be congratulated on their fine achievements. As to the China economy, a soft landing is the most likely accumulation of what has been announced so far.
Just a couple of tweaks, perhaps India (who have recently announced favourable measures) and Russia reducing the repo or benchmark rate, would help the worldwide cause. As they are such huge countries, they need to be in tune with the new policies being adopted in the mature economies.
I continue to believe in, and pray for, a worldwide economic Recovery.