The world awaits the next thrilling announcement from the Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Dr Janet Yellen. It does not matter that 76 percent of the American population questioned in a recent survey don't know her name, but this lady makes pronouncements which impact the globe and the American economy in particular.
What is likely now, will she taper away the total $15 billion, or leave some of it on hold, perhaps $5 billion? Most people will hope it is the latter.
The U.S. economy seems in robust shape, with the unemployment figure falling below 6 percent for the first time in so many years.
The U.S. housing figures indicate some cooling down, as fewer houses are being built and fewer people have bought houses recently, although with the current record-low interest rates in U.S. and Canada, the time could not be better to stake your claim on the property ladder if you have a reasonably good job and can pay the mortgage. A lot of folks I met when I visited Los Angles and Las Vegas in 2012 had done just that, working hard, cheerful, that they were realizing their share of the American dream, to own a house, an automobile, have good furniture, watch movies, perhaps travel overseas at a future date, send youngster to good schools and colleges, all through working hard, being the best at what they do, and earning their crust. I totally applaud these worthy people, whose faith and optimism has added to the picture.
The world economies have healed, and the one traditionally termed the locomotive has pulled along impressively, creating several hundred thousand jobs a month and creating heatmaps of happiness.
Let us not forget, there was a time when diamond jewellers in India were having a hard time when Americans didn't buy diamond rings. That was in 2009, early. Now the situation is so much healthier. People being able to travel has done the world a lot of good also.
I hear Mr Bernanke is in line to receive the Noble Prize for Economics and Political Science. Certainly this stalwart with nerves of steel did a grand job introducing the Stimulus and at every occasion magnificently dealing with the questions under intense fire. He is the Reserve Bank chairman others may do well to emulate. Of course, other economies may not have the might to implement policies like the United States, but I dare say the Emerging Markets, especially the BRICS nations, certainly have the clout to try and introduce such policies, perhaps experimentally. I feel sure it would do them a power of good. I believe the BRICS nations once on board will provide the second leg of the Recovery.
Until such time, I can only imagine a sound period of consolidation, with the economic Recovery strengthening from the groundwork that has been laid over the last five years or so.
Rationally, most people like to be busy, and likewise most economies prefer to be busy. Peace negotiations, a lower Oil price, and good health returning to the region hit by Ebola (God bless them) will see a rosy picture for the world.
I know, the German economy has shown a drop of some 5.7percent in the industrial production, but that may become corrected as demand overseas grows. People are waiting for the E.C.B. to announce their Stimulus, and I think maybe in another five months all the Euroland nations will have agreed to have the Stimulus, and the Germans introduced a suitable Clause in their Treaty.
Once that is so, the worldwide economic Recovery will continue, with Prosperity beginning in the U.S. (dare I say it?) in November. Some people are nervous and cannot believe it, as the Quantitative Easing comes to an end, but please remember the substance of cash flow amounting to several trillions has gone into the economy, and that has turned into wealth, being invested in the stockmarkets, bonds, as well as sustaining livelihoods, enabling people enjoy themselves, and creating many millions of jobs in the U.S. It is the nature of such momentum to create wealth and continue to create more demand and jobs. I have faith that that shall be so.
I say once again, I believe Prosperity shall begin in the U.S. by this November.
Durudarshan H. Dadlani