There seems some market optimism that the ECB will introduce the Stimulus for the Euro Area within the next few weeks. However, realistically, if ratification of this idea and the introduction of a Sub Clause in the Treaty of European Union (the Maastricht Treaty) takes due time, everything may be in place by end of February 2015, in my opinion.
Of the 14 nations who are members of the Union where they use the Euro as their currency (I call it the Mother Currency of the 14 nations, each having stoved away their original currencies to participate with the Euro), France and Germany authorised the additional issuance of 400 Billion and 350 Billion Euros respectively in 2008/9, under Mme Merkel and M. Sarkozy, it may be recalled. With that yardstick, France could do with another 50Billion Euro stimulus to bring it to par with Germany.
Germany seems to have been doing well so far, and has resisted talks about a Stimulus recently, although now with their exports affected by the Russia/Ukraine situation, Germany's industrial production was down over 5percent about 7 weeks ago. That set the DAX moving down, and was cause for pessimism. It may turn out that trade with other nations, especially the Emerging Markets (bar Russia) may remedy the situation.
I have been playing with some figures. If the ECB is to bring in a Stimulus of Euro 1 Trillion to the table, they perhaps could consider dividing it thus : 100 Billion for Germany, 108 for Spain, 200 each for France and Italy, and 28 each for the remaining 14 nations (i.e. 392 Billion Euros) making a grand total of 1 Trillion Euros.
The rationale for a Stimulus is that it will enhance the Recovery made from 2008, and hopefully bring all the European nations to a period of Prosperity, with growing support for job creation, businesses, building and construction, educational grants, support and loans, and infrastructure upgrade and development. The U.S. had their Quantitative Easing, Japan under Mr. Abe has stepped on the pedal and expanded their economy, the U.K. has done an extra £375 Billion into the system. The effectiveness has been proved with the strength of all these economies, and the ECB I believe should take courage and introduce the Stimulus at the earliest possible date, to continue the world economy grow in strength.
That's it for the moment. I will look forward to development optimistically.
Durudarshan H. Dadlani