1) Visa-free travel may be one thing, but it is quite another to have some kind of automatic right of stay for an extended period in another country whether for work or study or extended visit to relatives.
In terms of habitable land available, houses available and construction of more, the resources available in terms of potential jobs, medical facilities, schools, training, food, and of course provision of bathrooms and toilets, as well as police and such services, must be taken into account before allowing any more immigration. I believe that part of the E.U. rules will have to be revised and tightened up, to ensure each member nation will only take the number that it can reasonably accommodate and provide for, then they would be welcome.
2) Looking at the Unemployment figures for Spain, it is very good news that the rate has come down from 25pecent to about 20percent. The number of existing home sales has also started to pick up, reducing their inventory of the construction boom that left large number of houses empty. It seems the house prices in Spain must be very favourable for buyers, and with more employment being created perhaps the time will soon come when most of the houses will be occupied, and the market could boom in maybe a year or two. In the meantime, they have some work to do....for example running more buses along the less busy routes into isolated areas....this would encourage people to settle there. And with more people settling there, obviously more trades and service-providers will open up shop or office around there, and perhaps employ apprenetices...this would boost the employment further, and bring some relief and joy in Espana's economic Recovery. May we say Ole! to that.
3) The employment figures for Italy, France and Finaland are showing some deterioration, not good news, hence perhaps the caution from IMF that Europe will be achieving a modest Recovery. The E.C.B. could surely do something with their Stimulus and provide to these economies, to boost up the growth figures? Upgrade of industries, investment into the New Economy (i.e. digital media and means) and perhaps borrowing the idea from Germany (as they have done in the UK) and creating Zero-hour contracts and employing young and old alike would certainly bring a lot of happiness to the citizens.
The national wealth in the form of printed or digitized money can circulate with a better velocity (increase the unemployment and pension benefits, enabling the recipients to spend more and live better) and the economic momentum will start to pick up, resulting in better figures of economic Recovery for these nations (and preserving the whole general upward momentum of the economy of the Euro Area as a whole).
4) When people read of the current debate of the U.K.'s inclination to tighten the Immigration numbers (seeking to implement a points and quota system and abolishing an 'open door' easy entry system), some people will be pointed to look at the availability of jobs in other nations and their eligibility to go and work there, and perhaps settle there. Pigeons go where the grains are, to climes which are suitable for them. Why will it be different for human beings, if I may express it so simply? Rules should be so worded and designed that they mean joy and welcome for law-abiding citizens as well as meeting with the approval of the people of the various nations. An 'open door' policy simply will not work satisfactorily for the citizens, and politicians seeking to advocate such causes will perceivably lose their popularity.
5) Britain's intention to pull out of the European Union will remain a valid discussion and ongoing debate for about the next two and a half years. Whoever becomes the next British Prime Minister (Mrs Theresa May or Mrs Andrea Leadsom) will have to tackle some very complex legislation to (a) satisfy the Remain and Leave sides and (b) kick in Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty for consideration by the E.U. and the respective members' parliaments. Only thereafter upon satisfactory conclusion of such debates could formally Britain submit their proposal to exit the E.U.
- That gives hopes to both halves ( the vote was split 52percent Leave, 48percent Remain) that things will work out amicably and fairly. First and foremost it seems the British would like there to be a clamp down on uncontrolled immigration. Secondly, they would like not to pay or perhaps reduce the Club Fee, which last year for Britain was £8.5billion. In terms of the constant shortfalls in the NHS budgets and reduction of schools, neglect of building council housing and so on, even reduction of children's nursery places, this would be money best spent at home, in Wales and England especially, who voted for Leave. Northern Ireland, Scotland and London voted Remain overwhelmingly. It is anybody's guess whether a partial membership will be required. It may mean a mixed deal, and certainly some very complex scenarios face the United Kingdom in the days ahead. No, it will not break up the Kingdom, but it will mean the writing of some very complex legislation.
- Britain will emerge out of this Referendum as a stronger nation, focused on addressing their shortcomings within the neglected parts of the economy, and building on our strengths where the economy is robust and potential for sustaining it remains undisturbed, such as in London, Scotland and Northern Ireland, with the hopes that any neglect in these parts will also be address under the new Prime Minister.
Predicated on the good common sense of all the people in preserving the sound and useful cultural and economic ties that have developed in the European Union and the Euro Area over the last forty years or so, and to preserve such ties and expand them further for the future, I imagine steady economic growth for all these areas, for the next eighteen months at least. God, our Heavenly Father, and Nature, our magnificent Mother Earth has never disappointed humanity in constantly created abundance at a admirable pace. You have to marvel, and realise that They have never let us down. I say this testimony in the name of Jesus our Saviour and Redeemer. Amen.
(c) Copyright. Durudarshan.
Perhaps it is a blessing in disguise that the British people have a few months to weigh up the likely effects of Brexit before and whether Article 50, Lisbon Treaty, be triggered.
That in any case will not happen before 9th September, when the Conservative Party should have chosen their Leader, and who inter alia will succeed as the Prime Minister. In the meantime, David Cameron, foremost proponent of the Remain campaign, holds fort.
At this stage, it is anyone's guess who will emerge as the new Prime Minister. Will it be Mrs Theresa May, the most highly experienced of the trio still left standing for the office. Or will it be the Leave proponent, Mrs Andrea Leadsom, who has wide experience in the workings of the City financial markets? She has been endorsed by the former odds-on favourite for the job, the light-hearted but mercurial Boris Johnson, who for some reason stood down for the position when he was expected to stand and win it. Michael Gove was the apparent reason Boris Johnson declared himself out of the race. Mr Gove is seen as a determined but confused person, who let Boris down so badly by declaring himself a candidate instead of just supporting the hugely popular BoJo for the job.
The Conservative parliamentarians are going to continue to vote for the trio until one of them drops out by achieving the lowest backing. Thereafter, the remaining two will be put to the ballot of Tory Party registered members, and that postal ballot (shouldn't it be an Internet friendly ballot?) will decide on the victor in this race, thereafter to be appointed Prime Minister.
David Cameron indicated that could be by October; that gives Britons plenty of time to rethink on Brexit.
The media, especially The Sun newspaper, who so very openly advocated a Leave campaign and may have influenced the outcome of this very important Referendum, owe it to the public I believe to weigh up the consequences so the public can take a thoroughly considered view on this issue and decide what would be best. It may be a blessing in disguise that there are a few months before the new Prime Minister is in place, so Article 50 can also be fully understood before some rash decision is made.
Currently, Britain has seen the Pound Sterling drop from 1.48 to 1.29 in a matter of two weeks. That may be good for exports, but a lot of wealth has been written off. Secondly, Denmark and other E.U. nations were proposing to withdraw their FDI in U.K. A number of Real Estate Investment Trusts have suspended trading on the market, and property projects building across London and the U.K. have come to a halt. This is certainly bad news for Britain.
You just have to walk through the Mall in any town and the realisation dawns on you that there is likely to be a slowdown (already is) unless confidence becomes restored in economic security for the foreseeable future. Shops are not busy. If they are busy, people are just window-shopping. People are sitting in the sunshine on the benches outside. The stalls are not attracting too many customers. On a bright day, people don't look too happy. People are careful with their supermarket shopping once more. And not surprising at all. Some shops seem as if they will close unless customers start to return there in numbers. Jewellers, bookshops, clothes retailers, even the High Street favourites, seem a bit quiet, for the time being. And all this is just with the fear of Brexit, which hasn't formally been agreed. What would actually happen in the case of Brexit being formally agreed is anyone's guess.
You know, the Greeks also had a Referendum, on whether to leave the European Union. And they also chose to go for it, and get back their in-de-pendence from the superstate....Then once they realized that their pensions and social security (which are issued in Euros) would not be paid to them if they confirmed their verdict....well, they tactfully changed their minds and said they wanted to have their drachmas back but could not see life without the Euro. Their young Prime Minister Alexis Sipras declared that to the E.U. Ministers, and all was well. The Greek nation received the bailouts from Europe, and the people their money, and all could celebrate with a glass of retsina or ouzo as Europeans, flowers of the same Europa bouquet.
Actually, I believe the European Union can help restore confidence, especially on the issue of Immigration, and then perhaps the British will see the good sense in remaining part of the E.U.
Namely, the people are adamant they do not want any more uncontrolled immigration. As David Cameron has suggested, Britain would like to see immigration only on a points and quota based system, and a closed door policy to freeloaders looking for an easy life. This is something the European nations too have to consider and make part of their policy : can anyone really see any nation accepting so many refugees and migrants from Syria or wherever? There is a growing resentment and not welcome towards these beleaguered people, and of course it would be better to foster peace in their original homelands so they could return there, as soon as practically possible.
If the British people have the reassurance that the E.U. will halt this open doors policy, and not force any member nation to take any more refugees or migrants then they can practically accommodate, then there may be cool heads willing to look at the benefits of remaining part of the Union.
With positive consideration of these matters, it may be possible to have arrangements between the European Union nations to put aside these fears of a recessionary environment and instead enter at a good pace a further period of economic Recovery. All being well, a period of Prosperity could well be in sight, in another eighteen months or so, with all the wheels oiled in the E.U. and the Euro Area nations. The Pound Sterling being a Reserve currency of huge repute does of course provide a 'mirror' for the Euro, which is still in its infancy in that regard. Co-operation and support between all nations would provide mutual benefit, that I sincerely believe. In a global inter-dependent world, no nation can afford to become isolationist or inward-looking. To the contrary, all nations have to engage in open debate and pursue agendas where they have similar objectives and could harness synergy through amicable co-operation. For that understanding, I pray.
Durudarshan H. Dadlani
(c) Copyright, but may be freely copied and shared, with acknowledgement.
Although the majority by over a million people voted for Britain to Leave the European Union, the verdict was almost split, half the Kingdom voting to Remain, and half to Leave. Moreover, London voted by 60 percent to stay, as did Scotland by an overwhelming majority (and in all constituency seats) to Remain, as did Northern Ireland.
That leaves a mixed picture for the new Prime Minister to weigh up carefully and consider the implications before triggering the famous Article 50. Now everyone knows that the Brexit vote will mean only the British peoples' declaration that they wish to separate from the European Union, but that separation won't even commence until the Article 50 is triggered.....and it will take another two years from such time until a final resolution can be agreed and achieved.
Amicable separation, and what would be the terms and conditions? That is something the U.K. parliamentarians will have to discuss and chew, and debate and propose the changes the people would seek. Also, it will be upto the European Union Ministers in Brussels to throw up counter arguments, and will be a mildly heavy two years plus before some sense can be made of the issue.
Until such time, it will be at best possible for the British government to muddle through, anticipating and conjecturing on the final outcome, and how it will affect the rest of our days.
In the meantime, until a new Prime Minister is selected by the Conservative Party, and thereafter the Prime Minister decides in consultation with the Civil Service as to when it would be prudent to trigger Article 50, the whole matter can only be considered to be in abeyance, pending that decision.
Is it a given that in the meantime, trading can continue as previously between U.K. and the other 27 European Union nations? Will the same tariff free arrangements apply? Can the citizens travel freely without visas to the different nations in the Union, or will there be visa requirements?
Is Denmark pulling out its £150 billion investments in U.K. - or will it only take that decision once the famous Article 50 is triggered?
The vast majority of the British people seem adamant on one thing. They would not like to see unrestricted, controlled immigration to the U.K. The open door policy harboured by the E.U. has to be closed. The U.K. feels pretty full, and there aren't the additional spare resources to feed, house, clothe, school or provide medicine for any more, the services are already stretched. However, in view of the increasing number of older people in the country, they will allow selective immigration to fill certain jobs, based on a points and quota system. People seeking an easy life on free resources provided by the state are definitely gone, and now in an effort to balance the national budget, funding is being reduced wherever possible.
Also, a bone of contention is the £8.5 billion 'Club fee' that Britain pays to the European Union. This may be used in providing a few 'cushy jobs' for the Eurocrats, but the people in the deprived and neglected areas of England and Wales who overwhelmingly voted to Leave, don't see the value of it.
The £8.5 Billion could provide over half a million reasonably paid jobs each year, restoring services which have been reduced, and creating a new line of workers.
They would much prefer this £8.5 billion per annum to be kept here in the U.K. and spent on funding the NHS, schools, and restoring things like library services, lights on the streets, community centres, provision for youngsters to do some creative activities instead of a delinquent life, etc. It would also open up a lot of disused factories, shops on the High Street, and create local jobs. In these hard times, it seems a practical choice - in these times when the rest of the U.K. economy seems to be improving all the time, some of these areas seem to be left behind. Predominately they happen to be Labour dominated areas, so I believe it will be up to the Labour Party Leader to demand answers from the government as to why they have been so neglected. The Labour Party M.P.s who sit on the Opposition benches must pull up their socks, and question why they have not queried these matters; and if they did, why have they been ignored and the growth of their areas neglected. It is now obvious to everyone that there is huge potential for growth in these areas, and amicably the government must focus on this as a matter of national priority.
If that becomes a real possibility, the European nations I estimate may wish to keep their investments in the U.K., for further appreciation. And with the current 85 Billion Euros a month E.C.B. Stimulus, this could augur a period of further growth and continuation of the worldwide economic Recovery in this region. If my assumptions are correct, it seems a very rosy picture for Europe in the near future.
Let me know your views, I shall be pleased to hear from readers as usual.
Now that Brexit has happened, perhaps Britons should all celebrate, like Nigel Farage, and say it is no bad thing. Indeed, this Referendum result has hardly been a straight Brexit : there are large pockets of the country that have overwhelmingly voted to stay In the E.U., prime examples being London and the whole of Scotland and Northern Ireland, all integral parts of the United Kingdom.
The parts that have voted themselves out of the E.U. are England and Wales.
Parts of England and Wales who have predominantly cast the Leave vote are mostly 1) Areas of high deprivation and underdevelopment, areas which seem to have been neglected by various governments; and 2) Areas which are on the whole Labour dominated, politically.
The issues that mostly affected people in these areas were, mostly, Immigration or the fear of it;
joblessness, lack of opportunities, lack of funding for socially beneficial schemes (such as community centres, pedestrianized centres in town centres, lack of funding for education and higher education, lack of childcare facilities, closure of hospital wings, etc, a picture of neglect and deprivation.
Of course, when people say the touring red bus of BoJo, saying £350 million a week for NHS, blah,
this was a huge selling point for the Leave campaign engineered by Boris Johnson, the former London Mayor and now the clear favourite to succeed David Cameron and become Prime Minister. He has held this hugely responsible position, dealing with all matters of government administration and controls, and certainly he has welcomed and engaged with most of the world leaders, so it cannot truthfully be said that he has no experience at the highest level; that clearly he does, together with a scintillating personality and a humorous manner that makes him a fun personality, easy to understand, and likeable as well.
Whoever becomes the next British Prime Minister will have their tasks cut out for them : He (or She) will have to take the brief of the pull-out to the European Union leaders, and present to them the full reasoning and also suggestions solutions how it would be best implemented, together with a time-frame. The man who joyfully had governance of London for eight years could and perhaps should be that man.
The Brexit vote has hinged largely on two issues : a) Britain is a small island, getting crowded, and does not want any more immigrants - being part of the E.U. would force them to take more immigrants, especially from the E.U. nations, under the free movement arrangements. This is an element the P.M. will have to restrict, to the satisfactory agreement of the British people. b) The money that is paid to the E.U. as a club fee - £13.5 billion last year, only £4billion of which comes back to the U.K. The people would rather not pay this fee, and entrust the government to spend this entire sum internally in the U.K., perhaps largely to remedy the situation in deprived and neglected parts of England and Wales, together with funds available to London, Scotland and Northern Ireland as previously but with some enhancements, the proportion to be worked out to some formula.
As regards the two-way trade between U.K. and the various E.U. nations, that can obviously continue as previously, if it is agreeable to both sides. After all, no one wants to lose trade, and certainly the Europhile London and Scottish and Northern Ireland banks will continue to have their trade relations as before with the E.U. nations; naturally enough, England and Wales will have their trade transacted through these regions. So all may not be lost.
The European Union now may have the straightforward task of agreeing to the above suggestions,
so that their British friends can have the feel-good factor. Indeed, I would call upon all the E.U. nations in congratulating the British people on delivering this historic vote, and reassure them that they will not be obliged to take any more immigrants than they need (for whom work and housing, schools, medical facilities could be available). £8.5 billion will appear a minor amount in the context of the unity and longevity of the Euorpean Union, and the continued economic Recovery and Prosperity they may soon experience with the current E.C.B. Stimulus of 85 Billion Euros per month, no less.
If in a spirit of friendliness and generosity our European Union friends and allies can allow these two requests, perhaps we can all cast the darkness away and celebrate.
As for the NATO alliance, that stays same as before, strong as ever, according to Mr. John Kerry, the U.S. Defense Secretary.
A practical, sensible, friendly solution as amongst friendly nations, in a spirit of generosity and understanding, may save the day. And after all, what is the European Union all about? Is it not about the preservation of our cultural values and the happiness of all people within the borders?
As the United Kingdom uses its own sovereign currency, the Pound Sterling, the Brexit vote should have no bearing on the Euro and its sound establishment as a Reserve Currency. That I do believe, and I express my good wishes for the continued strength and longevity of the European Union.
Durudarshan H. Dadlani
(c) Copyright. London 27thJune2016, 3:34pm GMT.
Most people in the United Kingdom were surprised, perhaps even shocked, to wake up on this bright beautiful morning to discover that the verdict of the E.U. Referendum was a resounding Leave. That had been seen as a perhaps spirited, wishful endeavour by some dramatic and entertaining people, including the UKIP's Nigel Farage, and the former London Mayor Boris Johnson, who has the colourful history of being descended from a Pasha of the Ottoman Empire.
But at 8.20am London time, standing outside No.10 at a speaking table with a microphone especially arranged, David Cameron indicated his resignation over this issue. This foremost proponent of the Remain campaign probably felt compelled to follow his principles and announce his intention to resign, possibly in October when they have the Conservative Party Conference.
As for a timetable to find a Prime Minister to replace him, he merely indicated that there was no great urgency to trigger the Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty regarding the exit from the European Union, and that could be done in the next two years. However, Mr Cameron will be glad to let his Party choose his successor, someone who is likely to carry favour with the Brexit campaign and could credibly negotiate Britain breaking her ties with the European Union.
There are some ardent pro-Exit campaigners in the Conservative Party, and it is probable one of them will become Mr Cameron's successor as Prime Minister, and thereafter engage in the process of extricating from the European Union.
The European Union ministers were not at all happy to hear the news either. No one could have imagined any member nation wishing to Leave. It has left them considering a situation that once seemed imponderable.
But the British public, turning out in huge numbers at the polling stations, on a day marred by rain and localised flooding, for which alternative arrangements were made to accommodate the voting, helped to deliver their verdict : 52 percent in favour of Leave, and 48 for Remain. There was a 72 percent turnout, so no one was complacent or taking victory for granted. It was simply the will of the people, delivered in numbers, that they were happy to break off with the European Union.
Now that it has happened, the Brexit will serve as a precedent to other countries. It has given courage to the right wing or nationalist parties in other nations, and it is conceivable they too could be launching such campaigns.
To several observers, it seems there was some direct co-relation between what could be considered deprived or neglected areas and the huge turnout for the Leave side. The people were simply exhausted seeing their money go to Brussels, receive only part of it back, and having to suffer lack of hospitals, medication, school places, repairs to local infrastructure, lack of investment in jobs creation (with factories and houses boarded up) and such amenities. All these citizens will not countenance the idea of added immigration, even the mere mention of it, which the European Union or some of the member states seem to suggest. When people don't have resources for themselves, they are most unlikely to welcome other people to come and join in.
Surmising from comments made to the press by MrDonald Trump (the presumptive Republican Nominee for President), visiting his golf course in Scotland, one of the issues motivating the Leave campaign was immigration. And he sees the U.S. having similar grounds for conflict, and possibly his own election as President in November.
To look at Brexit in a positive way on this beautiful, glorious sunny afternoon, I imagine the British government could certainly help the deprived or neglected areas in Wales and Northern England with the money they won't now have to send to the E.U.
As for the E.U., their member states will always have the friendship and good trading relationships they have with the U.K. In my opinion, the current Stimulus being issued by the E.C.B. will help a continuing economic Recovery among the Euro Area nations, and the strong phase of growth in the U.K. will enable exchanges both ways.
Scotland enjoyed a tremendous Remain vote yesterday, and their First Minister, Mrs Nicola Sturgeon, has reaffirmed her nation's preference to remain part of the E.U., and perhaps might be calling for a second referendum to break away from the U.K. if needs be. Perhaps they will now have to devise some formula for each part of the United Kingdom keeping their preferred alliance while at the same time keeping together.
Regardless of everything else, the United Kingdom will always maintain its part in the NATO alliance, of that there is at least hardly any doubt. It is not without reason that Russian submarines were found in British waters, or trying to intrude in the airspace. It is certainly a concern amongst the various nations that they would not like to be gobbled up by this superpower, who has ample land but likes to be mischievous. They can always playfully act they are keeping everyone on their toes.
Hopefully, there will be no love lost over this result of the Brexit issue; perhaps in most matters, all the various nations can continue to maintain and further their meaningful friendship and trade relations with the U.K., as before? That would call for friendliness and generosity of spirit, which all certainly have. In which case, this Brexit result will have been no bad thing. In the cold light of day, it has thrown up lots of issues for consideration, and lots of possibilities where corrections can be made.
I trust positive changes will come out of this.
Wishing you a joyful weekend.
(c) Copyright, but may be freely copied and distributed, with acknowledgement.