Parameters of Recovery.
Under normal conditions of Peace and stable prices of commodities, a Recession is followed by Prosperity, by grace of God.
Currently, it seems we have progressed into Austerity.
1) Oil Price under $85 dollars a barrel.
From here, it will be necessary to have Oil at a price of not more than $85 a barrel for a period of at least six months for creating growth, in airlines, transportation, mass-production automobiles and so on. Otherwise, it has been noted that lot of airlines have been under severe pressure since January.
2) Interest Rate Convergence - for equality's sake
When the Recession started in 2008, there was the diagnosis that the Western economies, namely Europe and U.S., had left reducing interest rates until it was too late, curtailing growth and creating inflation.
Today, I believe the opposite is true. With historically low interest rates, and a situation where banks are unable to make loans for people to start or maintain businesses, buys vans and cars, or finance the purchase of houses...the question that arises is: Why is that so? Have the Central Banks forgotten to issue the duly authorized Legal Tender? That I would suggest needs must be done. It is imperative.
Then maybe, say after six months or so, interest rates will have to rise. I surmise it is natural in the cycle of economic events. Banks need to find it profitable to lend - there has to be a margin of profitability, otherwise how can they maintain their branches or pay their staff?
There are a few other factors also, which I will write about in the future.
Kind Regards to all readers of my Blog.