I don't think so. With the good jobs numbers for 15 of 16 months, the U.S. economy is showing signs of positive growth, including stable housing prices moving upwards, more people having faith in the economy and jobs and taking courage to buy their homes, more sales of cars, durable goods etc. This is likely to give grounds to raise the interest rate, with the elasticity of demand it seems now overdue.
I think September is when it is most likely, when the Debt Ceiling comes in for review, yet again.
Since August 2011, when $2.15 Trillion was authorised, it seems through prudence and expediency
they have renewed that almost automatically for the last few years. The current stimulus, if I am not mistaken, is about $110 billion a month. And of course it is creating wealth in the nation, good jobs being created in the public sector, giving people the power to spend and live well, increasing consumer demand, contributing to companies' coffers with bumper sales, look at GM or Apple for example. America is a robust rosy picture. A small percentage increase will be no bad thing. Indeed, the health of the nation will dictate that the rates have to be raised a notch.
As an American banker explained to me recently, the raising of the Debt Ceiling is like drawing a line in the sand, and all it needs is the blessings of both the Democrats and Republicans. These astute folks know the best way to work in the nation's interest, thereby also ensuring the continuation of their own pay checks. So an agreeable Debt Ceiling raise can be assumed to be a foregone conclusion. With that in place, I see further strength in the DOW Jones industrial average, the basket of the top American corporations will reflect the peoples' desire to invest in sound household names, companies who will pay them good dividends, and companies whose products you normally use anyway - so it does great service to the share price as well and you benefit that way.
I had seen a trajectory for the DOW to 18,500** by the end of June. It did not reach there - mainly because of the shocks of terroristic attacks in Tunisia and Lyons, Kuwait and elsewhere. Also, the Greek 'default' or 'in arrears' scenario weighed the markets down. The comparative size of it seemed not the worry, but the sentiment. Now it seems there is more confidence that the situation will stabilise and result in a happy compromise for the Greek people. A Trillion and Half dollars were wiped off the world stockmarkets following the attacks and the volatile situation in Greece. Once the situation regarding Greece is clear after Sunday's Referendum (where the Greek government is hedging their bet in a very astute way) I believe the markets may start to make up lost ground. And in that process go higher - having tested 18,250+, I reckon the DOW will logically wish to test 18,500. If the sentiment becomes more favourable, I believe that may happen well before September. After that, who knows? - but I am suggesting it could move even higher, even if the rate is hiked up a wee bit.
(**Everybody takes risk on their own account, I am merely expressing my views)/
Huge humanitarian crises have developed in Africa, the Middle East and now reaching Europe, with so many tribes becoming homeless and trying to reach anywhere they can find safety, food and shelter, and work. The nations where wisdom reigns always allow all their citizens to share and live happily side by side; where there is lack of such wisdom, the nations fall apart, perhaps not doing any harm to the self-centred leaders, but splintering the nation nevertheless. The refugee crises that have hit Italy and Greece, arising from Libya, Syria and Iraq, are on a breathtaking epic scale. Here is where some time, thought and money spent by the Western nations may help to restore peace. The refugee crises will also breed new strains of diseases which will carry into other countries. I don't wish to alarm anybody, but nor should this issue be ignored. Unless efforts are made to reduce the tensions and quell the enmities, huge epidemics may arrive in western nations in time, I am talking about a couple of years.
As they say, a stitch in time saves nine. And now is the best time for the Western nations to show goodwill to those poor nations and help them find peace with their marauding brothers, who are their kith and kin but have taken up a synthetic flag that actually gives legitimacy to their ruthless beheadings and mutilations. They are creating their own religion or creed, becoming greedy killing machines , uprooting peaceful and timid tribes and causing this huge humanitarian crises. Those people must be informed of the falseness of their doctrine, and must be told to regain their worthy religion, and truly in the name of Allah, live upright honest lives, helping their nations maintain peace and share the prosperity which they have been blessed with.
Just after 2008, Lord Rama's words came to me as an inspiration : "Where there is peace, there will be prosperity too." Those words are true, and I offer this inspiration as a guide to people of every nation.
All should prosper, and they know the basis for It : Peace.