The Trillion Euro stimulus announced this afternoon by ECB President Mario Draghi is nothing less than magnificent in my view, and will help create jobs and industry for millions, and turn into wealth. This stimulus augurs well for the European stockmarkets and for the Euro itself, which it now underpins with a very positive aspect. It seems to have been announced at the right time, and although the immediate market reaction may not have been wildly enthusiastic, it is a complex stimulus, needing people to understand and digest its implications.
In plain terms, it is 60 billion Euros per month over 18 months, starting from March to September 2016, meaning a total of 1,080,000,000,000* Euros. This was announced by Mr Draghi at the press conference in Frankfurt this afternoon.
It will serve the 19 nations that make up the Euro Area, or Eurozone, which now includes as from 1st January 2015 Lithuania. However, it will not be available at the moment to Greece, which benefits from arrangements already in place from the IMF, which gave them two bailouts and numerous haircuts. Perhaps there could be cross border mergers of some organisations which would benefit all?
There seems enough appetite for additional funds, especially by companies who have not been able to find funding from the banks so far. This is a ready segment that will be glad to be served by this Stimulus. As in England and Britain, where Mr Cameron has been visiting various companies, who have received funding now, something similar needs to be implemented in the Eurozone. Money invested in companies which need capital for upgrades of machinery, or cash flow to keep the factories operating while their customers arrange to pay them, will maintain employment and sustain livelihoods and, hopefully, even create wealth in the long term. That 'old school' way of trading had died recently in the credit crunch, and could well do with revival. It may be the clue to bring Recovery back on stream.
This Trillion Euro Stimulus was long awaited, and probably is just in time, now joining the money flow in the U.S., Japan and China, to maintain the worldwide economic Recovery, which shall flourish to Prosperity for all nations. The next stage surely must be for the BRICS nations to reduce their benchmark interest rates and for the Emerging Markets to do something similar, in due course to be followed by Africa perhaps? Or even simultaneously, and soon? Why not? The national books can become squared internationally, as each nation develops its resources, trades with the other nations, and brings development and growth at home. Would that not be the most marvellous thing to happen?
I wish you peace and prosperity, to every nation, man, woman and child.
P.S. Earlier I left out three 0's. Aw aw aw!
Hi everyone, how are you?
I wrote and published several blog posts over the last seven days, as follows :-
- Germany a good model of employment
- Forward guidance and the UK Housing market
- Light a candle....
- Stimulus? Taper? Where we headed?
- Mr Bernanke's penultimate testimony before he leaves the Fed.
- The paradox in inflation
- My blog posts this month
- Thanks for visiting my website.
- Bi-partisan Agreement or 14th Amendment, either way Debt Ceiling will be raised.
- Netherlands, Kansas City, Kharkov....welcome, welcome!
from the following. I express my thanks to the staff at these organisations, for listing my website and blog....without you, all these readers wouldn't have found me so easily. Thanks!
I am pleased to note that the value of my website is going up, and I am getting more visitors each month. I am particularly pleased to note that I rank tops with Google. That is thanks to my parents for having given me this unique name. (Duru is the North Star, and darshan means obeisance).
I hope you find something interesting to read on my website or blog. I like to tune in to receive any interesting information, most of which I share with my readers.
This morning, I went and helped clean the LDS Chapel here in Ilford. I opened the windows, then squirted some bleach into the toilet pans on all three floors. Whilst this was doing its job, I moved the chairs in the Sacrament Hall and hovered the carpet. Just nice and easy, and the exercise did me good. In the peace and quiet of physical labour, the mind becomes quiet and receives the Eurekas!
Until next time,
Wish you a great weekend.
In his penultimate testimony recently, Federal Chief Ben Bernanke suggested that the QE measures had greatly helped the economy.
The infusion of money did indeed stabilise the economy and create jobs on an on-going monthly basis, helping people buy autos and houses, and adding to consumer confidence in the U.S., which has become one of the fastest recovering nations post the 2008-crash. The QE measures introduced in August 2011 helped to propel the economy from a negative loss of confidence to a positive full of hope and promise and enterprise culture. The QE measures helped to finance the government departments as well as the social net, and has got some of the pick-and-shovel jobs under way, although not as many as may have been envisaged.
Secretary for the Treasury Jack Lew is characterised as pleading for action on the issue of the debt ceiling, but of course this issue cannot have escaped anyone's attention. A logical time for resolution of this issue in somewhere mid to end October, when Mr Bernanke may be stepping down, having served his nation in a most admirable way.
The $40 billion a month stimulus under the first QE measure must have clocked up a trillion just after two years and one month. The additional stimulus of $45 billion a month in buying of mortgage-backed securities has been in place for nearly a year, and that tots up another half trillion or so. All told, the authorised stimulus which was the debt ceiling was around $1.45 trillion, plus a further $700 billion from banks and private or public concerns. The money has swirled in the system and created much happiness for so many people, and sustained livelihoods and restored confidence, not only in the USA, but around the world. The dark days were when diamond merchants in India were standing idle, because American men had stopped buying diamond rings for their fiancées. The whole supply chain from South Africa to Antwerp to Tel Aviv felt the effect. Thankfully, those days are gone, and we all have to thank the return to confidence that has enabled consumers believe in a good life and live with hope. When people have received loans and mortgages, their purpose has been filled with joy. May that continue for the foreseeable future, as hard work and enterprise turn into wealth, going round and serving more. A growing circle of enterprise and industry in each nation has given added confidence to increased trade as well as growth at home. When the global locomotive of growth drives along, it is music to the ears of people everywhere, be it China, India, the Middle East, Africa, or South America, not to forget Japan and Australia. Growth and enterprise is good for the world, as each nation trades their unique resources, creating work and purpose, confidence and enterprise.
The cash-flow that the stimulus measures provided have been a great blessing, creating many jobs, creating many livelihoods, helping many families survive and recover from the savage recession that beset the world, and with the creation of activity, opening of factories and workshops, improving purchase of goods both utilitarian and luxury, improved number of travellers and visitors globally, it seems the economies are set for further growth to Prosperity.
Secretary of Treasury Jack Lew and colleagues will know what measures are necessary. President Obama and House Speaker Boehner will ascertain what is necessary and prudent for continuation of the economic Recovery. Positive developments on this with bi-partisan co-operation will herald the path to Prosperity. Trusting in good judgement, no one should have concern.
There are two types of inflation, shall we say, good inflation and bad inflation.
Good inflation is there when prices are going up due to continued increased demand.
Bad inflation is when the stocks are low, and are not being replenished, and the shortage
continues, and what is there is offered at a higher price, like onions in India.
In the 1930s, bad inflation took over the world, especially in Germany, with hyperinflation
and the printing of currency notes of high denominations and the usage of wheelbarrows to
carry the money to buy a loaf of bread. Such too was the situation in Zimbabwe not too long ago,
and there of course they did not even have wheelbarrows to carry the currency around. People
had to be trillionaires to buy a loaf of bread.
That shows an acute reaction to a model of currency issuance and control that leads to such a
grotesque situation. Where people can think and calculate and issue rationally, such a situation
ought not to arise.
In what was British India at that time, again in the 1930s, farmers stopped growing food because
it had to be sold at such high prices that people stopped buying as much as before. Farmers became
poor, unable to pay the rents on their plots or their housing. The zamindars could not collect their
rents, and consequently the whole system fell apart, the whole cycle of consumerism affected.
Such a situation causes bad inflation, where scarcity puts the prices up. Shortages are created,
together with the ills of hoarding, wastage while people go hungry and a disillusionment with production.
What was happening before the crash of 2008 and a hint of the 1930s in happening in India today.
Onions there are more expensive then the ones we buy in England, imported from the same region.
There is something quite wrong with the handling of the situation in India. I firmly believe the loosening of monetary policy and the reduction of the benchmark repo rate would have helped greatly.
That is the opinion of industrialists and that of bankers, but obviously not of the committee that decides such matters in the Reserve Bank of India. Today's hiking of the rate from 7.25 percent to 7.50
seems a step that will not help anybody.
With an increased money supply and lower interest rates, the Western economies have weathered the sceptre of a prolonged recession. By grace of God, with continuing production of crops and means to eat well, all other industries can do well also as consumerism gets a boost, a strengthening Recovery leading hopefully to a growing Prosperity.
Such should too be the case in India. Alas, if only they would listen and have faith. In such a burgeoning economy which has huge potential of further growth, they must have confidence of investment from abroad, even if they reduce the interest rate.
Today's interest rate hike indicates it was not welcomed by the financial markets. Clearly peoples' hopes have been dashed for the meantime. Hopefully, next month the situation may be more favourable.
There is palpable renewed confidence in the UK economy since Mark Carney took over as Governor of the Bank of England. His forward guidance that the record low interest rate of 0.5 percent would hold until such time as unemployment falls to 7 percent implies a very stable environment in which people can borrow and grow their businesses and add to their property portfolios.
Some forecasters believe we are in for another three years of this very favourable environment of low interest rates, and this has been registered by the pick up in the housing market. The FTSE has seen healthy volatility and seems to wear a rosy glow.
Rising house prices are of course not favourable to everybody, as a lot of people become sidelined, unable to buy even their first house while those who are already on the ladder bask in the glory of ownership or further improve their wealth by remortgaging and investing in the Buy-to-Let market.
This is where the government can bring in some mechanism where priority should be given to First Time Buyers and Growing Families Who Need to Move to a Bigger Property. That would bring a lot of stability to the market, and ensure a bubble is not created, where some people and corporations may prosper for the meantime but would not be appropriate for the economy long term.
The London housing market registered a gain of 0.9 percent last month, one of the healthiest gains for some time. The availability of mortgages and especially re-mortgages at record low interest rates is the cause for the euphoria.
If a mechanism is introduced through legislation to favour first time buyers and big families as I have suggested above, maybe it will turn into a celebration for more and more people. The housing supply would help those in need, and curb the unnecessary speculation. Payment of ever-growing rents from the public purse to buy-to-let owners is merely dishing out national wealth to a small minority of people, whose tenants become dependent on the social security for their lifestyle.
The interest rate is at a record low in response to a need for the economy to pick up, as a stimulus, and wealth will only be created when money is employed to create additional enterprise. In this respect, the banks will be doing their job fine if they pro-actively start to lend money to businesses and entrepreneurs in each local community, thereby enabling people make a living, create jobs in the local economy, and generally give a boost to the whole economy. When people are purposeful and busy, they have to use transport, buy food outside, dress up well and even buy a few luxuries.
The future looks rosy.