Durudarshan - Investment Analysis - Honest Information, Profitable Trading
My Blog

Eurozone

Magnificent, the ECB Stimulus

The Trillion Euro stimulus announced this afternoon by ECB President Mario Draghi is nothing less than magnificent in my view, and will help create jobs and industry for millions, and turn into wealth.  This stimulus augurs well for the European stockmarkets and for the Euro itself, which it now underpins with a very positive aspect.  It seems to have been announced at the right time, and although the immediate market reaction may not have been wildly enthusiastic, it is a complex stimulus, needing people to understand and digest its implications.

In plain terms, it is 60 billion Euros per month over 18 months, starting from March to September 2016, meaning a total of 1,080,000,000,000* Euros.  This was announced by Mr Draghi at the press conference in Frankfurt this afternoon.

It will serve the 19 nations that make up the Euro Area, or Eurozone, which now includes as from 1st January 2015 Lithuania.   However, it will not be available at the moment to Greece, which benefits from arrangements already in place from the IMF, which gave them two bailouts and numerous haircuts.  Perhaps there could be cross border mergers of some organisations which would benefit all?

There seems enough appetite for additional funds, especially by companies who have not been able to find funding from the banks so far.  This is a ready segment that will be glad to be served by this Stimulus.  As in England and Britain, where Mr Cameron has been visiting various companies, who have received funding now, something similar needs to be implemented in the Eurozone.  Money invested in companies which need capital for upgrades of machinery, or cash flow to keep the factories operating while their customers arrange to pay them, will maintain employment and sustain livelihoods and, hopefully, even create wealth in the long term.  That 'old school' way of trading had died recently in the credit crunch, and could well do with revival.  It may be the clue to bring Recovery back on stream.


This Trillion Euro Stimulus was long awaited, and probably is just in time, now joining the money flow in the U.S., Japan and China, to maintain the worldwide economic Recovery, which shall flourish to Prosperity for all nations.  The next stage surely must be for the BRICS nations to reduce their benchmark interest rates and for the Emerging Markets to do something similar, in due course to be followed by Africa perhaps?  Or even simultaneously, and soon?  Why not?  The national books can become squared internationally, as each nation develops its resources, trades with the other nations, and brings development and growth at home.  Would that not be the most marvellous thing to happen?


I wish you peace and prosperity, to every nation, man, woman and child.


Kind regards,

Duru-darshan


(c)  Copyright.

P.S. Earlier I left out three 0's.  Aw aw aw!


The macro shifts that could help Recovery

The U.S. stock market has recovered and gone beyond where it was at the marking point in October 2008.  I hear that even Lehman Brothers continues to make huge profits today.

The job creation in America last month was a bright number, at 300,000.  My suggestion is if such a number was created for another five months, it would be reasonable to say that the economic Recovery has strengthened significantly. 

No, that would not neccesitate further tapering.  I am of the opinion that Dr Yellen needs to perhaps increase the QE by about $5 billion a month for the foreseeable future, until Recovery is complete. 
At $45 billion a month, there is a shortage for the meantime to fund the social aspect, and cutting would have a similar impact to the dreadful sequestration, when poor students were being sent home because there was no provision for a mid-day meal for them.  (Of course, the wisdom may be to ask them to bring their own lunch and provide them the opportunity for education, and keep them from turning to delinquency).

The U.S. housing market seems to have stabilised, but has still scope for improvement.  While foreign investors and hedge funds will avail themselves of these opportunities, the American households are still holding to wait and see that there is sustained recovery in the jobs market with prospects long-term before they start to buy houses.  I of course would suggest that they should consider now, when rates may be just edging up a little from historic highs and prices remain affordable.


On this side of the pond, in the United Kingdom, the housing market has just become stable.  I don't see much upside this year, in view of cut-backs in social security for housing.  A lot of the estate agents relying on government funding for housing have closed shop; and I see a few landlords putting up their big houses for sale.  The time of easy regular income for landlords seems to be now over.  It may be a good chance for the government to provide housing to deserving people on low incomes if the rents are actually downwards from the recent highs.  That would make sense to the government purse as well as tenants.

Other than that the economy seems to be quite robust, with creation of jobs and employment opportunities for many, together with en masse creation of apprenticeships under the guidance and friendly policies of the Cameron government, which has been one of the most people sensitive government the Tories have formed so far.  The multi-cultural cohesion and contented atmosphere is something to be appreciated. 

The Greeks have got their economy improving, with 10 years Bonds at a yield around 6 percent.  Not many moons ago, the yields were an exhorbitant 30 percent or so.  The generosity of the European Union in bailing them out played a tremendous part in helping this situation to be reached.  All European nations, flowers of the same bouquet, must rejoice.  Spain is also seeing signs of improvement, and now that I hear of KKR looking to fund some Spanish bank, I guess the economy there will start to improve quite rapidly.  The huge opportunity is there, for people who like the good climate and culture, to buy properties there perhaps for retirement, and even start businesses there, which could be a way to create jobs in Spain. 

As governments adjust their policies to allow more immigration, especially to parts which are sparsely populated, more young blood can settle and rejuvenate the economies of the advanced nations.  The ageing populations need looking after, and the young immigrants would be happy to come and work hard and pay their taxes, buy houses, cars, books, TVs, etc, etc.  The economies would pick up.  That will I believe be the second leg of Recovery.

I believe the future is very bright, as Recovery will turn to Prosperity, which could be even within six months.  At least I pray for that.

Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.




Light a candle....

The economic news seems pretty positive all round, for continued worldwide economic Recovery.  India of course is out of sync on the benchmark interest rate, but it is a dynamic economy where the leadership are a little bit too cautious to accelerate growth.  For the moment it seems it will just motor along steadily, and blaming the high inflation on the scarcity of onions, which they are plentifully exporting.
 
The Greek economy seems to be on the mend, with a secondary surplus expected. With a nation with a population of 20 million and a large area, perhaps they need to encourage people who enjoy farming.  The potential must be huge with good climate, abundance of water and good weather as well. 
 
The situation in Spain seems pretty positive too, with a growth of 0.2 percent expected for the second quarter.  The benefits of creating jobs and filling up the empty housing, additionally with putting more buses on the roads to service secluded areas more frequently, will surely add to the growth.  Blessed with good weather and friendly people, I believe there is huge potential for continued growth in Spain.
A Latin version of Hollywood and Bollywood must surely be a possibility, with intercontinental co-productions?
 
Germany, well the situation seems so good, with Mme Angela Merkel back in the driving seat.
 
As regards the U.S., the talk of taper seems both promising and cautionary.  As Treasury Minister Jack Lew has suggested, the Debt Ceiling issue needs addressing quite soon.  The talk to me seems like a tapered candle, or a washer to be tapered on a lathe...I suppose Mr Bernanke will suggested what will need to be done.  The debt ceiling fix of a $1.45 Trillion in August 2011 was a job well done, adding to the money supply and creating the cash flow that has translated into so many jobs, a pick up in the housing market, and continued growth in the US economy, creating heatmaps of happiness for so many more people.  The stockmarkets and the banks seem in robust health, creating a huge pool of capital that will service the needs of people as and when they need to borrow and spend.  Cash rich companies like Apple attest to that fact. 
 
What would be great would be perhaps the creation of 500,000 jobs per month on a costing of $7 billion per month.  If that much additional capital was infused into the system by way of the taper, that would be just great.  Five years after the collapse of October 2008, the economic systems seem in much better shape, with strong financial institutions and safeguards in place.  A steady worldwide Economic Recovery seems to have been achieved, through co-operation and understanding of nations and the grace of God.  In celebration and to continue with Recovery, the world counts on seeing the Republicans and the Democrats in Washington support a cordial agreement, and light a new candle to Prosperity.
 
Ladies and gentlemen, you may step up to the alter, and light the candle that will add substance to the drams of humanity.
 
Amen.
 
(written by Duru-darshan)
 

Stockmarket falls, now what?

It seemed the stockmarkets had topped, and people were willing to take out some profits.  Equally, it seemed there was fresh money waiting to be invested, especially with promise of low interest rates for the foreseeable future in Europe, U.S., Australia and Japan, as well as China, all of which are using policies to generate further growth. 
 
The weak 0.1 percent GDP growth recorded in the second quarter in Eurozone has certainly helped the preceding period not being classified a recession, but the growth is very weak nevertheless, and demands continued stimulus with low interest rates.
 
The Bank of England's Guvnor Mark Carney has suggested an accommodative policy, indicating a low rate would obtain until such time as the unemployment falls to 7 percent.  This is a mixed blessing, as the government would prefer to see the rate fall faster but at the same time a prolonged period of a low rate is good for boosting the economy, as it generates growth.  All that really remains to be seen is the local banks loan the money out to entrepreneurs, start-ups, traditional small businesses seeking to expand capacity and such enterprises.  Britain's bankers will have to be just as willing to lend venture capital as the reputed bankers across the pond if Britain is to emulate the growth that has been created in the U.S. in the last four years.  As they say, money is inert matter and has life breathed into it when it circulates, giving people a living, fulfilling their dreams, going round and coming back with interest.  That is how wealth becomes created, utilizing what God has given in the form of farming and resources, to which is added human ingenuity and creativity, producing goods and services that have particular value and becoming marketable.  How kind God is, the bankers must appreciate and help the cause of humanity in their endeavours by lending money to them, so they can buy houses, cars, trucks, vans, iPods, cooking utensils, giant TVs, etc, etc.  Surely they would like to see people prosper?
 
The tepid movements in the stockmarkets today seem to suggest that the profit taking or jitters may be over.  Despite continued bad news of clashes in Egypt, the markets were quite stable.  It seems the conference called in Europe next week to address this issue by the European Union is probably likely to consider curtailment of aid to Egypt.  The U.S. has continued in a generous spirit not to have touched on this topic, hoping the situation there will be resolved peacefully in a short period.  Hopefully the Egyptian leadership and the people of Egypt will value this generosity, and try to reconcile their differences and work out a formula to appease both sides and let peace rule in their midst. 
 
People seeing dead bodies being carried to a makeshift morgue were lamenting 'Haram, haram' - meaning they did not expect death when their relatives had just gone to protest peacefully. 
I pray that God inspires the people to listen to the voice of common sense and reconcile their differences, and come to a solution that is just for all. 
 
I pray for peace in Egypt.
 
Ameen.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Period of Integration and Accomodative Policies

It was fun listening to a talk by Tony Plummer, on the theories of the legendary American investor W.D. Gann, who is fabled to have made over $50 million dollars - a huge amount in the 1950s. 
 
Gann theory, which Mr Plummer has interpreted in his new book The Law of Vibration, suggests that there are four cycles : Shock, which the world saw in 2008, followed by Absorption of Shock, which is supposed to have ended in 2012, followed by Integration, which began in 2012/13 and is likely to take us all in 2015.
 
This period of Integration is typified by what has been confirmed by the new Bank of England Guvnor Mark Carney as well as the ECB Chairman Mario Draghi, that the banks will continue with an accommodative stance with regards to stimulus, i.e. the punch bowl will not be removed any time soon.
 
It would seem that that will indeed become the theme of the coming months and years, at all levels, personal, political, economic, cultural, national and international, according to my reading of the situation.  This is based on the rational trends that are in their infancy on the world stage. 
 
Look at the example of Turkey, where an all-inclusive accommodative stance has stabilised the situation there. 
 
Look at the situation in Egypt, where the military as guardians of the peoples' freedoms and economic well-being are supporting the new Interim President, who is a Chief Justice of many years standing and will follow policies which will benefit a wider democracy.  Here again, an accommodative stance by all people, including the Muslim Brotherhood supporters of Dr Mursi, will win the day, to ensure the smooth running of this great cultural nation, so that trading and tourism continues, and continues to provide the bread and butter which all people naturally need. 
 
In this period of Integration 2012/13 to 2015, an accommodative stance by central banks and political leaders will be the rational ways to continue worldwide economic Recovery, and God-willing peace prevails everywhere, which will then lead to a growing Prosperity. 
 
Please let me have your comments as usual.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
  
RSS

Recent Posts

India's "demonitsation" could have a flaw
Donald Trump will be a good great President
The Euro unification of currency and philosophy has thrown up its own challenges
The Japanese stimulus may do wonders for the world.
I believe Japan should be cutting the Stimulus

Most Popular Posts

India's "demonitsation" could have a flaw
Donald Trump will be a good great President
The Euro unification of currency and philosophy has thrown up its own challenges
The Japanese stimulus may do wonders for the world.
I believe Japan should be cutting the Stimulus

Categories

"I know for a certainty that He is coming back"
"Where there is peace, there will be prosperity".
#Business Show, Excel, 18th May (today) Docklands.
1st E-Mail Campaign
A 385 Billion Euro Plan for Greece - the Jucker Plan
A crunch point for Greece and the Euro Area.
A 'damage limitation' excercise after Brexit.
A further pierod of economic Recovery in the Euro Area,and Europe.
A method to help Swollen legs
A sensible arrangement with Greece would be best
A stockmarket correction before resumption of the bull trend?
Abenomics, Mr Kuroda.
Accomodative Stance.
Acts of Nature
After the bitter pill, good times ahead for Greece?
Ah so....Mr Abe's economic stimulus, authorized by Guvnor Kuroda.
app.brandwatch.com
Appeal for peace and help for Ukraine
Ayurveda - Jobs in voluntary sector
Bangladesh building collapse
Bank of England rate unlikely to be raised just yet...
Baptism to be born-again.
Basil leaves tea.... for reducing diabetes, soothing cancer
Batman, comic books, turn ons.
Best in the Industry
Bhopal
Branding
Brexit - a lesson for positive changes?
Brexit? Oh no, I believe it would be a bad idea.
British Airways - lost property - missingx.com
Budget for the Enterprise culture.
Burma - Nobel Laureate Aung Sang Suu Kyi
Business Show, Olympia 22-23 Nov London
Can Dr Yellen delay hiking the rate for some time?
Cheers to the pre Christmas spirit
Children dying of measles in Larkana, Sindh.
China - positive signs
China is still very rosy, with re-focus of the economy
Chinese stockmarket fall
Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints
Cinema
Clarity will help the Euro develop into a strong Reserve Currency.
Climate Change, make furniture
Climate change? Unseasonally warm
Continuation of Recovery.
Co-operative Enterprises
Corporaate Social Responsibility
Corrections : CBoC rate and Stephanie Ruhle
Could Mr Kuroda taper the Stimulus?
Creating employment, the challenge facing Europe
Credit Easing
Cultural harmony
Cyberattack? or just some hiccup?
Cycles and the stockmarket
Debate about the £26,000 benefits cap.
Debt Ceiling
Debt Ceiling II
DEmonitisation may have a flaw
Detroit
Developments in Orissa, Bengal, Meghalaya
Diamond Jubilee and Olympics
Diamond Jubilee Year and Paralympics
Divine Guidance
Do you care about the young doctors?
Donald Trump shall be a good great President
Donald Trump would be good for a King, but not as President
Drink a Pinta Milk a day.
Drought, and shortage of drinking water, in India.
Durudarshan for Prime Minister of India, May 2014
Durudarshan.co.uk/blog
durudarshanco-21
E.C.B. Stimulus
ECB 20 Billion additional stimulus,
ECB Stimulus
Egypt
Eike Batista, 10th Richest Man in the World.
Elan Musk
Enhanced ECB Stimulus would be an Act of Faith.
Euro
Euromillion Lottery Winners
Europe hopes Britain will remain In.
Eurozone
Exciting times ahead for the world economy.
Expansion the key, to avoid recession in midst of plenty.
Extended Stimulus by the E.C.B. and a 10 basis point cut seems good news.
Facebook - my blogs on Facebook
Fathers Day - some heartwarming words
Football Clubs
France, Germany, Brazil, India, Russia.....greetings!
Free Money and grants for U.S. citizens.
From Recovery to Prosperity
Frozen shoulder
Further peace, lessen war and conflicts.
G8 Summit
Georgia, Tbilisi
Gifts...for Christmas and all year round
Go ahead, ask the banks for a business loan.
Good days ahead for India, with the Acheh din Budget.
Good evening, Greek friends....
Good times ahead
GoodshowTradingLtd.com
Greece
Greece - an act of faith is necessary
Greece - In or Out of the Euro system?
Greek Debt Situation
Greek national dance in celebration.
Growth for Europe
Guest Book
Gurdas Sidhu - Knowledge to Action
Hacking a problem on blog - please connect via Facebook
Happy Birthday, Grace!
Happy Easter
Happy Fathers Day
Happy New Year!
Health - Diabetes
Heavenly Father, where art Thou? Can people share God's Umbrella?
Help for Indebted Farmers in India
Help save High Street stores in Britain
Herbal and Ayuvedic medications
Hillary Clinton needs all the support in New York and California...and Redmond,Kentucky...
Hillary Clinton odds-on favourite with the bookies, no wonder.
Hillary Clinton, The Donald, the Tea Party?
Hillary for America = America for Hillary
Hillary for America. The Democrat faithful can make it so today.
Historical blogs - of current interest.
Hollywood L.A.
Homely Comfort
Hopefully, the ceasefire can lead to a greater Peace in Syria.
Housing - Social and Improvements.
How can the symphony of Recovery and Prosperity resume?
How can we perhaps have the miracle of Inflation?
How does money get to the real economy?
How would a Greek 'default' affect us all?
I believe Japan should reduce their Stimulus
I pray for Venezuela, now suffering poverty due to fall in Oil price.
I would appreciate your comments
India
India - The Lokpal Bill
India, shortage of water a national emergency?
India's 14th 5-Year Budget.
Inspiration from the Master Mariner
Interest only Mortgages
Interest Rate and the Economy.
International Women's Day
InterTrader Affiliate
Investment Analysis and Management
Iran, a new era of peace
Is Brexit likely? Will Hillary win the Presidential race?
It would be just wonderful....The Queen's Speech
It's looking good for Hillary Clinton.....and for Donald Trump.
J.P. Morgan
Japan - Prayer for continued recovery
Jesus, the Heart of Love for all Mankind
Job creation for youngsters in U.K.
Jobs and growth
Jon Bon Jovi, Rockstar, Humanitarian, a Heart of Love.
Kimberley Davis, Sarsaparilla
Light a candle....to Prosperity
London Business Show - 7th June 2013.
London Business Show, 28-29 Nov, Olympia.
London Housing Market
Loves and blessings for Christmas
Manoj Bhargava - Billionsinchange
May Allah bring Peace
Micro and macro - chocolate, fruits, money.
Middle East
Milk
Money for 18-24 year old Entrepreneurs
Money supply
Money, money, money
More libraries, free books.
Motivational
Mountain of $57 Trillion, and a family worth 700 Trillion?
Mr Maponya, a dream city in South Africa.
Mr Tsipras makes impassioned plea for help for Greece
Mr Wilson, Yoga Masseur
Mrs Clinton holds Mr Trump on form. I believe she will win.
Mrs Hillary Clinton for President
Musical Christmas celebration, by the Hyde Park Choir
My sentiments are to vote IN on 23rd June 2016.
Nature's Law
Nigeria
North Korea's Mini Bomb....let us view it as comic relief.
Now is the time for all good men and women to come to the aid of the Party.
Nuclear Power
Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Bengal
Oil price and Recovery
Oil price far too high
Oil Price, Interest Rates and Recovery
One day for God.
Over half a million new jobs with a Brexit?
Painting and Art.
Pakistani treatment of Indian prisoners
Paralympics
Peace
Peace between Russia and Ukraine
Peace and Prosperity ahead for 2016?
Peace and Understanding.
Peace helps us not to fall short of the glory of God.
Peace in Syria - something must be done to arrange this.
Peace, as a rose upon stony ground.
Pensions
Personal three wishes for 2012
Please, can they consider amending the Myanmar Constitution?
Poor inner-city areas a breeding ground for terrorists?
Pray, and avoid the tragic occurences
Prayer for Peace in Syria
Profitable trading
Progress in harmony, not disruption.
Promoting on www.durudarshan.co.uk
Prophet Mohammed
Prosperity
Raise a glass of bubbly to Greece
Ratings and Opinions
Read the Scriptures with spirit, and you will find the answers.
Real life supermen!
Real life Super-woman
Recovery in the Eurozone now likely to continue
Redmond - Blessings of peace unto you.
Remain connected, improve connections
Remembrance Sunday
Renewed Recovery for the Euro Area now possible.
Right selection of business
Right to Work, Obamacare, competitive wages.
Sadiq Khan, Mayor of London. A celebration.
Saudi Arabia proposing some welcome cuts.
Save the Leopards - WWF
Security - Police
Selective Immigration
Shadow boxing? The night is yet young in the contest for the highest office in the world.
Sister Akunne's good news...her exam pass, and continuity to work as a teacher.
So much money!
Social enterprise, Micro-finance for UK entrepreneurs.
Social Issues - Commentary
Somalia - books, handbags
Some thoughts for the New Year.
Some thoughts on Christianity
Spain
Steady growth for Europe for the next 18 months, by grace of God.
Stimulus in Europe?
Stock Market
Suggest Japan should taper their Stimulus.
Swami Baba Ramdev
Swami Ramdev, Patanjali Yogpeeth Trust, India.
Swaminarayan Temple, Neasden
Swissie
Syria Peace Talks to be arranged for 9th March 2016
Tata Steel - could they find a buyer soon?
Testimonies at the Latter Day Saints church, Ilford, UK
Testimonies of a Christian family
Testimony at the LDS Church after the Blue Moon
Testing, testing
The Church of Latter-Day Saints
The Affordable Health Care Act - great news.
the British steel industry - and the E.U.
The Chancellor's Autumn Statement
The Digital Economy
The Euro Area Stimulus to commence very soon
The future is bright, very bright
The future looks rosy. I believe we shall avoid a recession.
The God Particle.
The Golden Plates and the Inspired Translation of the Book of Mormon.
The Himalayan tsunami
The love of Christ - a strong enough foundation.
The magic of chemistry - partnerships.
The Mormons
The Mystery Method
The Panama Papers
The price of Gold
The price of Oil
The Queen visits Ilford.
The Queen's Speech 8th May
The Queen's speech to Parliament
The refugees from Syria - help for them, please.
The Republican candidates
The Third Industrial Revolution
The Tools for te nut
The U.S. Presidential elections
The U.S. Presidential race
The U.S. Property sector, creating $2 Trillion to the good.
The US Housing Market
The Yuan adjustment
To Alexis Tsipras and the Greek nation - growth, Recovery and Prosperity.
Tolstoy would have been as Christ.
Tolstoy's bread crumbs
Touker Suleyman, who bought an ailing company for a £1 and turned it into a £27 Million tu
Trillion dollar coin?
Truth shall prevail - a spiritual musical
Turkey
U.S. government funding till November 2016, please.
U.S. should extend the Debt Ceiling, Japan should taper, India should cut the rate, U.K. doing fine
U.S. shutdown
Undocumented Immigrants in the U.S.
Utah
Vegetarian food in Las Vegas
vistaprint test
Website traffic streams
Welcome
West Bengal
What can Mr Putin not do?
Who will win the Presidential race?
Why don't the stockmarkets like prospect of a Republican win?
Why I feel optimistic about Greece
Will the DOW reach 18500, or even 19000?
Winds, be thee still.
Wish you a Happy New Year...Prunay le gillon, Oxford and New York.
Wish you a joyful weekend.
With high energy prices, how can British steel industry survive? Yet survive it must.
Work hard, and work for peace....that way may be the noble, dignified way forward.
World Money Show, 8th & 9th November
Worldwide Economic Recovery
Would you borrow from your bank?
www.durudarshan.co.uk
Year of the Monkey.
Yulia Tymoshenko
Zimbabwe - may it continue with fair policies
powered by

Website Builder provided by  Vistaprint