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What are the chances of the worldwide economic Recovery continuing this year?

The chances are pretty decent of the worldwide economic Recovery continuing this year, with the promising possibility of enhancement.

Japan seems to have decided to continue its Stimulus, running at some $85 billion a month.  This is gigantic for the size of their population, and guarantees the highest standards of living in the world to all Japanese citizens, plus a growing influence around the world, where their capital is likely to foster growth and development.  For example, they have offered $35 billion to India for joint venture in developments of infrastructure, and this will certainly add to Japanese GNP.

India has done joint venture and co-operation treaties with Germany and France, to help develop some of the 100 new cities that Pradhanmantri Shree Narendra Modi announced at the beginning of 2015.  Since then, he has visited China and Russia, and is signing up co-operation and trade agreements with every likely nation, including many in Africa.  As a lot of Indians lived in Africa and grew up there, it seems India is taking an altruistic stance, wishing to repay with gratitude to their African brothers and sisters.  This is a laudable gesture, and will enable the inherent and huge potential growth that is in places such as Lagos and Zimbabwe. 

China too is extending its sphere of influence, Hon Xi Jinping visited so many nations and signing up trade and co-operation treaties.  I can imagine joy for all these nations, where they will have expertise been made available to them, together with the machinery and transportation to fully benefit from their resources as well as create infrastructure developments which they so badly need.  How can people not imagine dams, electricity, drinking water available on the doorstep, schools, dispensaries, hospitals, hotels, housing, tourists.....thriving economies....where God has blessed them with the rich fertile lands, mineral wealth, green vegetation, fragrant flowers, livestock to provide them plenty of milk.  Africa is most likely to come up with the most number of billionaires soon....or if not, at least top social entrepreneurs who will instead contribute to their lands through holding together and creating business enterprises which serve the communities.  If not dollar billionaires, these will be the enlightened spiritual billionaires who will do great good for their communities....at once, their people will have increasing standards of living.  If the local African banks can back these entrepreneurs, they can create the development and wealth and growth that is the potential.  I pray all these people receive the rich blessings from God.

The United States has steadily grown from the dark days of the 2008 meltdown to today, where the economy seems to have been totally restored, and is growing, with confidence, more jobs, more enterprise, more homeowners, more cars......Now the Fed will just need to fix the Debt Ceiling (in March, it seems).  If they just expand the balance sheet to January 2017, the Obama administration will be home and dry, and all the senators and representatives can continue to collect their pay checks. 
The alternative policies of the Tea Party crowd or Republicans like Donald Trump would see Obamacare repealed, and poor students being sent home due to lack of a free lunch at school.  Those dark days caused due to sequestration are something that is best forgotten. 

I pray Hillary Clinton shall become elected as the President at November 2016.  Simply, it seems her destiny.  It would resonate with the times and the perceptions of people today, everybody seeking self-expression in a democracy.  Her election will enshrine the highest achievement in gender equality.  That is a truth the people will not wish to hide, nor deny themselves. The time has come for this Democrat to rise as the dove, and sit in the highest office in the land.

She was very successful as a peacemaker in the Middle East when she was the Secretary of State.  She has a natural gift for making peace agreements, and people trust her.  She is a natural ambassador for peace.  The world atmosphere will change when she becomes President, the whole tone of political relations will change, I believe, for the better.  It is up to the people, to honour her, and elect her to the White House. 

The One Trillion Eighty Billion Stimulus that the European Central Bank has rolled out has the promise of being extended beyond September 2016, as announced by their President Mario Draghi recently.  That will offer ample scope for upgrade and innovation by the companies in the Euro Area (and by extension Europe) to meet the challenges of these times.  On that note, the one thing the world is waiting for is the Juncker Plan.  With reforms under way, Greece must surely be ready for it.

The low Oil price has depleted the reserves of the oil exporting nations, and their budget deficits have been bigger than envisaged.  That suggests they will review their stance on cutting productions, and introduce some cuts before long; their stance has hurt their purses deeply, so some change may be expected.  Russia too could follow suit, unless they are happy to foster a recession at home.  Common sense would suggest oil price could begin to rise.....but when is only known to the bigwigs in OPEC and Russia.  It is past the post-panic stage; it seems it is a time when they must be regretting not cutting back production earlier.  And there would be no loss of face.  Economic reality seems pretty harsh.

May I wish you good health and joy for the New Year.

Kind regards,
Durudarshan H. Dadlani

(c) Copyright, but may be freely shared.

Where next for the worldwide economic Recovery?

Remembrance Day at the LDS, Ilford

Remembrance Day at the Ilford chapel of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints was marked by the Bishop and congregation paying respects to the memories of the heroes and heroines who gave their lives in the quest for freedom from tyranny and injustice. 
 
How great a freedom we enjoy today as citizens of England is all due to the heroes and heroines who laid down their lives, as well as those valiant men and women who helped negotiate peace and brought forward this day into being.
 
Brother Jeremy Boyden : "We remember all those who made the ultimate sacrifice, like our Saviour, and we mark this day when peace was first agreed between all nations, on 11th November 1918".
 
The President's wife Sister Saltzman read a poem about Flanders Fields.
 
The Bishop's son, Brother Michael Onaolapo Jnr : "Greater love hath no man then He who gave up His own life so that others may live."
 
Sister Shannon Pickering, who was baptised in the Ilford ward two weeks ago, spoke a few words about the loving atmosphere that prevails in this land, thanks to people like her gransparents who did their bit during the war.
 
Sister Joanne Boyden read a famous poem, starting The glory shines upon my tears....She read the bit about hopes and expectations and stars and then became very emotional.  (I asked her later; she explained that her Mother lost two brothers in the war). (For the Fallen, Robert Laurence Binyon).
 
Brother Michael Lighten paid tribute to the great example of Captain Noel Godfrey Chavasse, recounting events in the Captain's life  in the Royal Army Medical Corp, who had to combine civilian with military duties at the front, where he saw within a few hours 189 casualties out of 600.  Captain Chavasse worked behind enemy lines for four hours, just 500 yards to safety.    On another occasion just 25 yards from enemy trenches. Altogether, Captain Chavasse saved the lives of approximately 20,000 men.
On another occasion, he worked with protection against an attack of mustard gas.
     Noel picked up his torch, and rose up in his time, working against impossible conditions of mud, blood and water.  Captain Chavasse was decoated with a rare second Victoria Cross.  Such men are rare indeed, and we all recall his courage with awe and celebration.
 
"For their tomorrows, we give our today"  John Maxwell Edmonds.  That was the spirit of the unknown solider, great soul who's memory we salute today.
 
We stood and paid our respects to the memories of the men and women who have won the freedoms that have greatly contributed to the enjoyment of peace and peaceful life that England enjoys today.
 
Bishop Onaolapo made these closing remarks : "We are here because of the sacrifices the soldiers, male and female, have made for us.  That is why the great atmosphere of stability and safety, friendliness and love prevails in this nation.  I am sure this country will go from strength to strength because of that, and I am proud to be a citizen of this great country of ours."
 
I believe this sums up the congregations sentiments on this day, when we salute those whose lives were lost, as well as those who brought about peace.
 
May God's blessings be upon all.
 
Amen
(written by Duru-darshan
Melchizedek Priest,
LDS Ilford ward)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

How is the economic Recovery likely to continue?

It has taken all of five years for the world economies to be restored to semblance of normality from the dark days of 2008.
 
Remember those days when the interest rates were quite high in the advanced economies, anything from 4 to 7 percent - and that for the benchmark European Central Bank, Federal Reserve and Bank of England rate. 
 
The crisis created by the collapse of Lehmann Bros sent shockwaves throughout the financial system worldwide, with stockmarkets tumbling, loss of confidence in trade, fall in house prices, and a mood of pessimism gripped the world. 
 
At the vortex of the crisis, when Oil price reached $147 per barrel, according to OPEC AND European Union figures, about $250 billion additional bills were imposed on the European Union's oil expenditure, and what a terrible crisis it created, making transportation and manufacturing unviable in many countries, e.g. Portugal, Spain, Greece, the extra drain sucking the life-force out of the system. 
At the peak of the crisis, people who were earlier working in the textile industry were suddenly without work, and wondering how they would find their cod-and-chips.  Enterprising young people and old were trying their hand at the e-commerce economy, and finding lot of work but little revenue.  The Prime Minister of a sovereign nation which was so prosperous not so long ago was visiting the heads of state of various nations, asking for help.  The social security systems were severally stretched, the tax revenues not corresponding to the new outflows.  The interest on the bonds became quite high, to attract investors.  Talented people from universities were not able to find opportunities to make a living. 
Demand on housing was as high as ever, but people didn't have money to rent, nor were banks willing to extend mortgages.  Indeed, banks and loan corporations were suddenly unviable, after the property price plunge and bankruptcies of many individuals. 
 
Today, comparatively, there has been a return of confidence.  Things are getting better.  Spain, Portugal and Greece have seen their bonds become more attractive to international investors.
But the worst is hardly behind us, yet the oil price remains so high.  The pending closure of the Grangemouth Refinery is an indicator of the havoc the oil price plays with the balance sheet of such businesses.  A business that was viable up until recently today stands in need of £300 million, with that it would support 800 jobs until trade is more favourable.  This may be a microcosmic illustration of what could be in store for the OPEC nations, unless they decide to reduce the oil price to a level that is affordable to the rest of the world, and would give the OPEC nations an on-going stable income on a long-term basis into the future, and allow the world to breathe, and help sustain Recovery. 
 
It took two-and-a-half years after the high oil price knocked the economies for six for a return to some kind of normal business activity.  Common sense tells me that the high price today will probably hamper growth for about a year-and-a-half, and it is already restricting growth and causing hardships in many places, e.g. Yemn, Kenya, India, and almost all the nations outside the G20. 
I WOULD RESPECTFULLY SUGGEST THAT THE OIL PRICE NEEDS TO BE BELOW $85  A BARREL.
 
That would help the hard-pressed developing nations meet their bills from their depleted reserves or devalued currencies, and enabling continuation of trade with the U.S., China, European Union, Israel and indeed OPEC, which would create a dynamic of mutual co-operation and support that may help all nations thrive and develop all their potential.  That is the missing piece of the jigsaw in the picture of a continuation of the worldwide economic Recovery. 
 
All the listening hearts of the world know what I am saying, and those who sit in positions of influence will do what is necessary, for that I pray.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

The situation in Egypt

It has been called a massacre, the deaths of nearly 500 people in clashes between the military and pro-Mursi supporters, after the ruling junta lost patience with the protestors occupying squares in Cairo and Alexandria.  Bulldozer-tanks demolished the barricades Dr Mursi's supporters had built around themselves, and soon thus provoked the people started to throw bricks and stones at the tanks, and soon the army moved in to confront the protestors.
 
In the midst of this, or soon after it started, the Interim Vice President Mr El Baradei resigned, leaving the leadership mostly composed of military brass headed by General Sisi.
 
It has been a sad situation, and I hope and pray that during the one month of a State Emergency, when curfew is being enforced rigidly at night time, the ruling junta will consider the possibilities of how to now form a civilian government under its aegis and continue with restoration of the democracy and continuation of the economy vis a vis the world.  The best solution, a pragmatic jigsaw fix, would be to reinstate Dr Mursi in a power-sharing leadership, which will appease the Muslim Brotherhood and not give U.S. the excuse to withdraw aid, which it could well do if the leadership is a de facto military one.
Under the aegis of the military, Dr Mursi can be relied upon to interpret the constitutional parameters of his duties.  Perhaps if peace prevails, Dr El Baradei hopefully could be asked to also resume his position, perhaps as Joint Vice President with Dr Mursi.  I am taking the liberty to give my impartial view, but I believe the Egyptian democracy must be saved at this first sign of trouble, so that it can continue to function normally with the tourism and trading, thereby putting this nation onto a path of Recovery, which it can achieve if there is a peaceful outcome to the current situation.  I dread to imagine this nation of Nasser's and Anwar Sadat's people, who believe in Arab unity and regional peace, having such violence and anger which has visited Egypt in the last few days.  I pray all sides will show restraint and unending patience and help to resolve the crisis peacefully.
 
The stock market in Cairo was a plunger, and the world markets too have taken fright, fearing escalation of violence in Egypt in the absence of a sound plan of reinstatement of an acceptable leadership that will appease the Muslim brotherhood protestors, who feel robbed of legitimate representation in the form of Dr Mursi, who the Yemini Nobel laureate Tawakkol Karman has described as 'the Nelson Mandela of the Arab world'.
 
The Oil price has headed up again, when really it should be heading down given the weak figure of 0.1 percent growth in Eurozone GDP.  Okay, we don't have a recession, but it is very weak growth. 
The high unemployment in Israel should give people food for thought.  Oil price is far too high, and a few traders becoming millionaires will leave a lot of people suffering, especially in places like Yemen, Kenya, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar and China.  High oil prices just slow the economies down, that is now pure common-sense, based on extensive data from the time Oil hit a high of $147 and saw the world economies suffer a slow down and the deepest recession in living memory. 
 
May Allah inspire the Egyptian people to bridge their differences and set their nation back on track for peace and Recovery.  My prayers are with all brothers and sisters in Egypt.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
   
 
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