Durudarshan - Investment Analysis - Honest Information, Profitable Trading
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My blogs being read overnight are as follows :
  -  The ECB's 25 basispoint cut
  -  Stephanie Ruhle, CNBC interviewer 
         (She's actually an anchor for Bloomberg, working in New York)
  -  This is time for buyers to support Bangladesh factories
          (American companies have done so, may blessings be unto them)
  -  Thomas Sugrue's review of The Last Great Prophet
  -  The Bank of America share price.
 
----------------------------------------------LIZZIE--------------------------------------------------------------
 
Yesterday I heard the news that China has experienced good growth and far from a hard-landing which people feared it is experiencing very sound growth, with PMI figures up and increasing. 
 
One commentator has stated that China has several trillion dollars of reserves for investment, so I imagine the worldwide boom can continue.  Today I heard that 80 percent of visas being taken for visits to Portugal are for Chinese property investors.  This way, all economies with an open-door policy to encouraging property ownership and immigration would benefit from the Chinese wherewithal to sustain growth and Recovery. 
 
If the Chinese sources are suggesting U.S. is looking for $561 Billion for next six months, it augers well for the U.S. that the jobs numbers were pretty good and growth potential is inherent in America, and it would be very probable that China would support such borrowings and support, as they have done in the recent past. 
 
The luxury sector may start to rebound in China, who continue to buy Rolls Royce cars and jets as never before, and with the refocus on domestic consumption and increasing exports from China, it is apparent that the Honourable Xi Jinping is inspiring policies that will help the Chinese people achieve higher standards of living. 
 
For stability and optimism into the near future, what more could the world wish for?
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Stimulus? Taper? Where we headed?

In his penultimate testimony recently, Federal Chief Ben Bernanke suggested that the QE measures had greatly helped the economy. 
 
The infusion of money did indeed stabilise the economy and create jobs on an on-going monthly basis, helping people buy autos and houses, and adding to consumer confidence in the U.S., which has become one of the fastest recovering nations post the 2008-crash. The QE measures introduced in August 2011 helped to propel the economy from a negative loss of confidence to a positive full of hope and promise and enterprise culture.  The QE measures helped to finance the government departments as well as the social net, and has got some of the pick-and-shovel jobs under way, although not as many as may have been envisaged. 
 
Secretary for the Treasury Jack Lew is characterised as pleading for action on the issue of the debt ceiling, but of course this issue cannot have escaped anyone's attention.  A logical time for resolution of this issue in somewhere mid to end October, when Mr Bernanke may be stepping down, having served his nation in a most admirable way.
 
The $40 billion a month stimulus under the first QE measure must have clocked up a trillion just after two years and one month.  The additional stimulus of $45 billion a month in buying of mortgage-backed securities has been in place for nearly a year, and that tots up another half trillion or so.  All told, the authorised stimulus which was the debt ceiling was around $1.45 trillion, plus a further $700 billion from banks and private or public concerns.  The money has swirled in the system and created much happiness for so many people, and sustained livelihoods and restored confidence, not only in the USA, but around the world.  The dark days were when diamond merchants in India were standing idle, because American men had stopped buying diamond rings for their fiancées.  The whole supply chain from South Africa to Antwerp to Tel Aviv felt the effect.  Thankfully, those days are gone, and we all have to thank the return to confidence that has enabled consumers believe in a good life and live with hope.  When people have received loans and mortgages, their purpose has been filled with joy.  May that continue for the foreseeable future, as hard work and enterprise turn into wealth, going round and serving more.  A growing circle of enterprise and industry in each nation has given added confidence to increased trade as well as growth at home.  When the global locomotive of growth drives along, it is music to the ears of people everywhere, be it China, India, the Middle East, Africa, or South America, not to forget Japan and Australia.  Growth and enterprise is good for the world, as each nation trades their unique resources, creating work and purpose, confidence and enterprise.   
 
The cash-flow that the stimulus measures provided have been a great blessing, creating many jobs, creating many livelihoods, helping many families survive and recover from the savage recession that beset the world, and with the creation of activity, opening of factories and workshops, improving purchase of goods both utilitarian and luxury, improved number of travellers and visitors globally, it seems the economies are set for further growth to Prosperity. 
 
Secretary of Treasury Jack Lew and colleagues will know what measures are necessary.  President Obama and House Speaker Boehner will ascertain what is necessary and prudent for continuation of the economic Recovery.  Positive developments on this with bi-partisan co-operation will herald the path to Prosperity.  Trusting in good judgement, no one should have concern. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

The world is swimming in money.....!

According to Reg Varney, the Fox news commentator, the world's central banks collectively have pumped in some Fifteen Trillion Dollars into the economies over the last few years.  This is a hugely interesting figure...it should suggest the world is swimming in money, and not in need of further stimulus at all at all...
 
So far as publicly available figures indicate, the U.S. raised its Debt Ceiling by $2.15 Trillion Dollars on 3rd August 2011, and thereafter via QE 2 and  QE 3 by a further $85 Billion a month, which has been trimmed by 1/12 since February 2013 since the Sequestration cuts kicked in. 
 
In the United Kingdom, some £375 Billion of Credit Easing facilities have been introduced by the Bank of England, all told, till currently.
 
I wonder which other central banks have printed that gigantic amount of cash and released it into the system. 
 
The current figures from Russia indicate a slow-down there, with GDP figures progressively being downwards, mainly due to lowering Oil prices on which the economy relies so heavily.  Oil prices in the global context are of course likely to head down further, if recession is to be avoided once again.
The current oil stockpiles in the Middle East and the Strategic Oil Reserves would corroborate this scenario, and it can only help the oil exporting nations to keep the oil price low for some time till economies can pick up again. 
 
To avert a slow-down at home which would impact the world, I believe the BRICS nations, with the exception of China, should consider a generous cut in the benchmark interest rate. I would suggest, that is the silver bullet, and they ought to utilise it.
 
China under the Rising Star of Chairman Xi is bound to do well and he likes progress and prosperity for his people; however, they are unlikely to keep on manufacturing goods cheaply and ship them out to the rest of the world, and on credit at that.  A greater demand and consumerism in China itself is likely, and a re-focus is probably causing the current mild hiccup.  It is a matter of record that when Honourable Xi was a rising star in his party, his comments and suggestions created a boom.  I cannot believe that now he is in charge, anything but the best will be possible for China. 
 
With increased trade between nations, and extension of credit facilities and investment into one another's cultures, a great hope of continuation of the world economic Recovery is always bright.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

Namaste, Indore!

As the weather shoots up another 5 degrees in most parts of India, including the normally cooler hills, there is a drought in the state of Maharashtra.  The water wells are empty, and water is being brought in by tankers, which move along and inefficiently distribute the precious water, spilling some of it as the tanker moves along,  one pewter container per person.
 
The drought is all no thanks to the sugar cane industry, which drinks up most of the irrigated water.  There are handsome subsidies in the sugar cane industry, and more acres are earmarked for further plantation of this crop.  The sugar factory bosses are happy, and the regional government ministers have to get their favour.  But it seems absurd as the drought is likely to drive people away from parts of Maharashtra, and the overfill of treasury to the sugar bosses will bring poverty to the rest of the region.
That is something which is best faced up to and averted before it becomes glaringly obvious. 
 
Sugar could be imported quite economically from regions of Africa where there is plenty of land and water, such as Uganda, where the Indian Madhvani family have the biggest sugar mill.
 
In Pune, normally a cool area compared to other parts of Maharashtra, temperatures have soared up to 45 degrees centigrade, and there seems just about enough water to wash the face and brush teeth with a glass of water.  This is in stark contrast to how it used to be, when people could take a comfortable bath.  The CM of Maharashtra and his cabinet must rethink on this policy of allowing more sugar cane plantation, to ensure the economy doesn't become unbalanced.  I hope they will listen to this as constructive criticism, as I have stayed in Pune and have many relatives there.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

From 2008 to Recovery

The 2008 banking crisis and the collapse that followed could be summed up in a few vignettes:
 
The two major banks in Iceland, who had invested in two entrepreneurs who were buying up British retailers on the High Streets of Britain, went belly up, leading their Finance Minister to remark some time later that "perhaps we should go back to fishing".  The size of the hole was £61 Billion, many times the GDP of that nation.
 
Then came the blow up of the boiler houses like Bear Stearns and Lehmann Bros, whose chairman Mr Fuld had readied an exit strategy of taking a golden parachute of $300 million, totally oblivious to the small investors in India and Brazil and other places bereft of their investments of lifetime savings.
 
The stockmarkets at that time plunged hundreds of points.
 
The next initiative in the Recovery process was the meetings of the G7, then the G20, of discussions of ideas on how to climb out of the mess.  A new infusion of approximately $1.5 Trillion was put into the U.S. and  European economies, in emergency measures, and slowly, steadily some semblance of normality started to materialise.
 
Since then, the U.S. has put in a very necessary and prudent stimulus in the form of quantitative easing (QE I, II or III) and likewise the British economy has been blessed with measure of £375 Billion.  Currently the Bank of Japan is infusing $85 Billion per month, equalling that of the U.S., who have somehow put in a sequestration of one-twelfth of that, to reduce $85Billion over a year.
 
Still, there is plenty of money in the system.  The British banks like HSBC and Barclays are said to be flush with cash.  The stockmarkets worldwide look in a healthy shape, including Kenya and Ghana in the developing nations. 
 
This current week the markets will take a breather, as not much detail is available as to what the G7 and IMF M.D. Christine Lagarde have come up with from their recent meeting in Buckinghamshire.
While there is talk of the stimulus in U.S. being tapered off, the new U.S. Treasury Secretary seems to be calling for a resolution of the Debt Ceiling issue before Labour Day. 
 
Banks seem in robust shape currently, and risk appetite is growing, a good bullish sign in which it is hoped the banks will take courage and loan to small family businesses and young entrepreneurs, and help them transform that mountain of readies into wealth in the long term, creating sustainance for the people and taxes for the nations, and much happiness for all.  When people start to practice the law of generosity and become well-wishers to one and all, everyone will prosper.  For that I pray.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
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With high energy prices, how can British steel industry survive? Yet survive it must.
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Worldwide Economic Recovery
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Year of the Monkey.
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