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What would happen if there were no Debt Ceiling raise?

Each one can imagine some kind of bleak scenario, in the event that the Debt Ceiling was breached and there was no agreement in Washington between the Republicans and Democrats. 
 
At the moment, the world watches in exasperation as the two sides debate and give a very mixed impression.  As they gleefully remain entrenched as to what they will concede or not, the time is ticking away to 17th October. 
 
Japan and China have wondered at the shutdown, and why it is not being lifted swiftly.  In those nations, such a situation, were it ever to arise, would be reversed as a matter of honour and in the interests of not impeding the economic engine.  It would be done swiftly with a command from the leadership. 
 
In the U.S., by contrast, as is the nature of democracy, every fine detail has to be debated.  That is fair enough, but time is running out nevertheless.
 
In the event that there is no Debt Ceiling raise by 17th October, one can envisage a bleak picture where government will not be able to pay its employees, which of course also includes the Representatives and Senators who have defended very narrow corners and brought about the current shutdown and the furloughs, disrupting peoples' daily routines and reducing their paypackets.  Of course this would have an impact on the economy overall were it to continue for any length of time.  Just over a week has gone, and the mood on the stockmarket has been subdued.  If it were to continue for consecutive 21 days, probably it would cause a disheartening mood, which would dampen the feelings and start a down-turn.
 
Secretary of State for the Treasury Mr Jacob Lew has said there would be about $30 billion for cash-flow, in a 'four trillion dollar enterprise'.  That may be sufficient for 12 days, which would take everyone to 29th October.  If there was no agreement by then, can you imagine anything but the stock markets falling, a fear factor and a lack of confidence, people being laid off by private enterprises as well.  I would bet the Oil price would plummet, demand would be so drastically reduced.  The domino effect would be worldwide, nothing short of alarming.  It would be like looking at Greece in its recent dark days, only the U.S. is a much bigger economy, with over 16 times the population of Greece.  Not only that, what is the sovereign currency of a well-functioning economy and the Reserve Currency of the world would have its standing compromised. 
 
I trust they have some arrangement in place, whether by bi-partisan co-operation, putting aside for the moment the other issues which are dividing them at the moment, and agreeing to a Debit Ceiling raise by 17th October; or, arrangements in place to allow the President to exercise his prerogative under the 14th Amendment and sign in an amount that would be prudent and necessary. 
 
Mr Obama has mentioned that the debt burden has been reduced by Two and a Half Trillion in the last few years, so his Administration's policies have been productive and praiseworthy, pulling the whole economy out of a severe recession and creating a nation with huge heatmaps of happiness, which have  provided growing confidence worldwide.  The sooner the uncertainity regarding the Debt Ceiling raise is removed, the better will it be for the whole world.  America's well-wishers and creditors alike would feel good, a positive mood of certainity and predictability for future growth would continue worldwide.
 
The last Debt Ceiling raise in August 2011 has proved efficacious, and so there would be universal approval and applause for such a measure this once also.  Those who believe in doing right by their fellow humanbeings, let them also do right by the currency that says 'In God We Trust'. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

Netherlands, Kansas City, Kharkov.....Welcome, welcome!

It is that moment in time when the world knows the answers, yet some do not seem to.  For their narrow vested interests, they may be taking decisions which will adversely affect so many people.
 
Yes, point in question about the shutdown in the United States, affecting some 700,000 government employees who have been told not to turn up for work, because the two caucuses of the centrist Republican Party which is the U.S. Congress cannot agree the left with the right.  They would like concessions on many issues, which are not of prime importance today and bear some relevance to the great impending issue of the raising of the Debt Ceiling.  According to Mr Jack Lew, Secretary of State for the Treasury, the clock is expected to hit a top on 17th October, giving just about 15 days for the Congress to concentrate on this priority. 
 
The aggregate debt stands at a whopping $16.5 Trillion, but certainly that is not huge in comparison to the essence and integrity of the United States of America.  At last count, when the debt ceiling needed to be raised in August 2011, the Chinese Premier Hu Jintao as well as the Japanese leaders offered their continued support. 
 
The cash-flow in the system has enabled an ongoing Recovery, translating into much consumer confidence, demands on goods and services, and heatmaps of happiness across the world, in China, India, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Japan, Australia, Europe, Brazil, Venezuela, and every nation who trades, which includes all nations of the globe. 
 
Indeed it was a great gesture when the Federal Reserve opened the Open Window in Europe, enabling the Eurozone to borrow dollars and pump into their economies, creating much growth and momentum
in production and consumer confidence. 
 
There must be few people who do not see the benefits of a globalised economic powerhouse that is the world, where co-operation and trade between nations helps each nation produce its unique resources and exchange with the rest of the world.
 
I believe the world can confidently assume that the U.S. banks collectively have the wherewithal to underwrite the raising of the Debt Ceiling.  As Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan and other leading bankers meet with Mr Obama today, certainly that will be on the agenda of discussion. 
 
In August 2011 the U.S. banks collectively had over $1.45 Trillion, and enabled that raise.  It will be good news to hear what they may be willing to underwrite this time.  Certainly the money has swirled around the system, enabling people buy the houses and cars and television sets and sofa sets and iPads which they love, and swelled the coffers of companies such as Apple and Oracle and billionaire Carl Icahn.  All that is really needed is for such companies and people to continue to create more employment in the private sector, and for government to continue to serve the people effectively.
 
The lifting of the shutdown would be great, and would be welcome for people who are visiting America, so that their trips are joyful in seeing the monuments they have come to see. 
 
A rethink on what has led to the shutdown can only help the goodwill of America, and the prosperity of her own people.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 
 
 

Stimulus? Taper? Where we headed?

In his penultimate testimony recently, Federal Chief Ben Bernanke suggested that the QE measures had greatly helped the economy. 
 
The infusion of money did indeed stabilise the economy and create jobs on an on-going monthly basis, helping people buy autos and houses, and adding to consumer confidence in the U.S., which has become one of the fastest recovering nations post the 2008-crash. The QE measures introduced in August 2011 helped to propel the economy from a negative loss of confidence to a positive full of hope and promise and enterprise culture.  The QE measures helped to finance the government departments as well as the social net, and has got some of the pick-and-shovel jobs under way, although not as many as may have been envisaged. 
 
Secretary for the Treasury Jack Lew is characterised as pleading for action on the issue of the debt ceiling, but of course this issue cannot have escaped anyone's attention.  A logical time for resolution of this issue in somewhere mid to end October, when Mr Bernanke may be stepping down, having served his nation in a most admirable way.
 
The $40 billion a month stimulus under the first QE measure must have clocked up a trillion just after two years and one month.  The additional stimulus of $45 billion a month in buying of mortgage-backed securities has been in place for nearly a year, and that tots up another half trillion or so.  All told, the authorised stimulus which was the debt ceiling was around $1.45 trillion, plus a further $700 billion from banks and private or public concerns.  The money has swirled in the system and created much happiness for so many people, and sustained livelihoods and restored confidence, not only in the USA, but around the world.  The dark days were when diamond merchants in India were standing idle, because American men had stopped buying diamond rings for their fiancées.  The whole supply chain from South Africa to Antwerp to Tel Aviv felt the effect.  Thankfully, those days are gone, and we all have to thank the return to confidence that has enabled consumers believe in a good life and live with hope.  When people have received loans and mortgages, their purpose has been filled with joy.  May that continue for the foreseeable future, as hard work and enterprise turn into wealth, going round and serving more.  A growing circle of enterprise and industry in each nation has given added confidence to increased trade as well as growth at home.  When the global locomotive of growth drives along, it is music to the ears of people everywhere, be it China, India, the Middle East, Africa, or South America, not to forget Japan and Australia.  Growth and enterprise is good for the world, as each nation trades their unique resources, creating work and purpose, confidence and enterprise.   
 
The cash-flow that the stimulus measures provided have been a great blessing, creating many jobs, creating many livelihoods, helping many families survive and recover from the savage recession that beset the world, and with the creation of activity, opening of factories and workshops, improving purchase of goods both utilitarian and luxury, improved number of travellers and visitors globally, it seems the economies are set for further growth to Prosperity. 
 
Secretary of Treasury Jack Lew and colleagues will know what measures are necessary.  President Obama and House Speaker Boehner will ascertain what is necessary and prudent for continuation of the economic Recovery.  Positive developments on this with bi-partisan co-operation will herald the path to Prosperity.  Trusting in good judgement, no one should have concern. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 

Thanks for visiting my website.

Thanks for visiting my website and reading my blog.  I hope you found something interesting.
 
Life is fun, with demands on time in so many directions.
 
Thursday I went to the Community Centre in Cricklewood.  Every Full Moon, they do prayers to Satnarayan Swami and Mata Laxmi.  It is a tradition we Sindhis have followed for generations, to pray to God and Goddess to give us peace in the household, and prosperity in our business affairs.
 
Later I visited the Southbank Centre, attracted there by the exhibition of her Picasso like painting by
Sangeeta Roshni Babani (she is an inspired painter from Mumbai, and she's Sindhi too, so I thought I'll
pay there a visit).
 
Sangeeta hadn't obtained her visa, and therefore could not be there.  Other artists from India exhibited
their creations alongside a few of Sangeeta's paintings. 
 
Particularly I liked a table whose top opens in segments like a fan, and this is adorned by mirrors.
This is by Yamin Mohiuddin from Hyderabad.  I can see such a piece adorning some young one's bedroom or even a hairdressing salon.  It would look good in a media company's foyer. 
 
If you like genuine teak furniture, like a chair crafted like black petals, or a palm made of teak, and don't mind paying about £800 for such items, Firdos Furnishers of Nagpur have several pieces on display.
 
An English idea that seemed to catch everyone's eye was Gerrad the Second.  This is a folding dog that looks like an inspired work of origami, with 188 sections to unfold and paste together very very carefully with Uhu glue.  The small ones sell for £20, and are limited editions of 500.  Fair enough.  They have decorative prints of dollar notes, piping, mascots, newspaper cuttings and so on, like industry or sector or indeed national mascots.The large ones, including one made of black wool decorated with harlequin squares, well, those will become collector's items, starting in an auction in 2014 at £1,000.  Absolutely grand.  Made by Liam from Liverpool.
 
 #####################################sangeeta############################################
 
Today I missed going to the Millionaire Mentors Bootcamp at the Hilton, London Bridge.  There is a free general entrace, generously hosted by Raymond Aaron, the bestselling author.  Problem is, it starts at 9 am on Saturday and Sunday.  Just a bit too early to travel up there for me;  otherwise it seems an event worth attending.  Finishes at 6pm both days.  Bootcamp to give you quick fire ideas how to boot up your ideas and send them skyrocketing.
 
 
I am sure someone can suggest ideas to make my website and blog into a money minting machine.  Well, hold my hand and show me the way. 
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.

Mr Bernanke's penulimate tesimony before he leaves the Fed.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke made a cordial testimony yesterday, a month now before he is due to step down from office.  Essentially, he restated that the quantitative easing measures need to remain in place until the economic Recovery picks up further steam, but such measures have greatly benefitted the economic pickup and that the economy is strengthening thanks to such measures. 
 
There is nothing but appreciation for Ben Bernanke's handling of the Federal Reserve policies, and I admire this Statesman greatly.  His unique style has helped keep just that degree of suspense that is discretion, while at the same time sharing as much information as has been necessary to bolster stability.  The world stock markets got a boost after his testimony yesterday.
 
It remains to be seen how the Obama administration will fix the debt ceiling issue, which Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has indicated may fall due in October.  Will it be bi-partisan co-operation by the Republicans and the Democrats as before?  When everything is going so well, it is to be expected that they will push through the required votes to help Recovery stay on course, as would be both prudent and necessary.
 
Whoever is selected to be the next Fed Chairman, essentially the pro-growth policies are expected to stay in place. 
 
I have a hunch that the Dow Jones Industrial Index will either shoot for 17000 by the end of the year, or head up for 16000.  What the mind of man can conceive and believe, it can achieve.  I sense it will be possible.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
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