Good morning, readers. As the DOW passed 16,000 yesterday, I didn't write anything at that moment. Regular readers of my column/blog will surely know that I was one of the few to suggest the DOW would go past 14,000 - then past 15,000 (the magic of 15,000) - and only recently 16,000. I was of the view that the DOW could even do 17,000 this year, in the next five weeks or so. A thousand points in say 25 working days, is it possible? I shall wait to assess the markets further before I would commit to such a suggestion.
In the meantime, I imagine a lot of punters will take some money off the table, and put into alternative markets. India SENSEX has seen more inflows in last few days.
If not this year, then certainly I believe the DOW will hit 17,000 in next few months, on the proviso that the feel-good is assisted by the candy distribution, on which the panel will decide in the US this week.
That's all for now.
I wish joy and success to all my readers, in Netherlands, Fuzhou, California, India, Kenya, Tokyo, etc, etc.
Caveat : Everyone trades entirely at their own risk, I am merely sharing my views.
(c) Copyright 19th November 2013, Durudarshan H. Dadlani.
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LinkedIn (professional and so well defined)
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and, just for good measure, a few porno sites, harmless fun is okay I'd say.
My blogs being read overnight are as follows :
- The ECB's 25 basispoint cut
- Stephanie Ruhle, CNBC interviewer
(She's actually an anchor for Bloomberg, working in New York)
- This is time for buyers to support Bangladesh factories
(American companies have done so, may blessings be unto them)
- Thomas Sugrue's review of The Last Great Prophet
- The Bank of America share price.
Yesterday I heard the news that China has experienced good growth and far from a hard-landing which people feared it is experiencing very sound growth, with PMI figures up and increasing.
One commentator has stated that China has several trillion dollars of reserves for investment, so I imagine the worldwide boom can continue. Today I heard that 80 percent of visas being taken for visits to Portugal are for Chinese property investors. This way, all economies with an open-door policy to encouraging property ownership and immigration would benefit from the Chinese wherewithal to sustain growth and Recovery.
If the Chinese sources are suggesting U.S. is looking for $561 Billion for next six months, it augers well for the U.S. that the jobs numbers were pretty good and growth potential is inherent in America, and it would be very probable that China would support such borrowings and support, as they have done in the recent past.
The luxury sector may start to rebound in China, who continue to buy Rolls Royce cars and jets as never before, and with the refocus on domestic consumption and increasing exports from China, it is apparent that the Honourable Xi Jinping is inspiring policies that will help the Chinese people achieve higher standards of living.
For stability and optimism into the near future, what more could the world wish for?
It is a concensus worldwide, and not only in Washingdon D.C., that the Debt Ceiling which needs to be raised to avoid a default, which the U.S. certainly does not wish to entertain, will be raised, be it (preferably) by bi-partisan co-operation and agreement in Congress, or by Presidential Prerogative.
Secretary for the Treasury Jack Lew has suggested 17th October as the date when the current debt ceiling arrangements hit top. It will be both prudent and necessary to raise it further, and in the current shutdown scenario in Washington the options are plain : Either the partial shutdown of the departments is swiftly lifted and government can function once again as normal, giving enough time for a bi-partisan consultation and agreement on a Debt Ceiling raise; alternatively, give the President the opportunity to exercise the Presidential Prerogative under the 14th Amendment and sign into law a figure he believes justified to safeguard the normal functioning of the government and the U.S. economy.
The new jobs created figure today of 155,000 for September seems pretty healthy, although to see a fully fledged Recovery would need about 400,000 to 500,000 new jobs per month for about 6 months. Until then, the environment demands continuation of a Stimulus, which may be tapered later when conditions improve further. In the meantime, the record low interest rate gives hope that the housing market can continue to improve and strengthen, together with auto sales and hand-in-hand creation of many jobs and heatmaps of happiness. Strength of the U.S. economy for now seems a barometer of the world economy, as confidence in the world's largest economy always impacts everywhere else.
In Japan, Premier Abe's government continues with their Stimulus, which was running at $85 billion a month (equal to the U.S. stimulus at its current height). This has enabled the Japanese economy to pull out of the stagnation that has marred it for over 20 years; the investment and build-up after the Fukushima disaster has enabled Japan lay the foundation for continued improvement and growth, the fruits of which Japan shares with investment overseas in neighbouring countries and abroad. Their GNP
figures will be nothing less than impressive, with substantial investments in the U.S. also.
It will be a great blessing for the U.S. to raise the debt ceiling in a timely fashion, and renew the confidence worldwide that things can continue as normal everywhere, which can add impetus to further growth worldwide from a strengthening Recovery to Prosperity. For that I pray.
It is that moment in time when the world knows the answers, yet some do not seem to. For their narrow vested interests, they may be taking decisions which will adversely affect so many people.
Yes, point in question about the shutdown in the United States, affecting some 700,000 government employees who have been told not to turn up for work, because the two caucuses of the centrist Republican Party which is the U.S. Congress cannot agree the left with the right. They would like concessions on many issues, which are not of prime importance today and bear some relevance to the great impending issue of the raising of the Debt Ceiling. According to Mr Jack Lew, Secretary of State for the Treasury, the clock is expected to hit a top on 17th October, giving just about 15 days for the Congress to concentrate on this priority.
The aggregate debt stands at a whopping $16.5 Trillion, but certainly that is not huge in comparison to the essence and integrity of the United States of America. At last count, when the debt ceiling needed to be raised in August 2011, the Chinese Premier Hu Jintao as well as the Japanese leaders offered their continued support.
The cash-flow in the system has enabled an ongoing Recovery, translating into much consumer confidence, demands on goods and services, and heatmaps of happiness across the world, in China, India, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Japan, Australia, Europe, Brazil, Venezuela, and every nation who trades, which includes all nations of the globe.
Indeed it was a great gesture when the Federal Reserve opened the Open Window in Europe, enabling the Eurozone to borrow dollars and pump into their economies, creating much growth and momentum
in production and consumer confidence.
There must be few people who do not see the benefits of a globalised economic powerhouse that is the world, where co-operation and trade between nations helps each nation produce its unique resources and exchange with the rest of the world.
I believe the world can confidently assume that the U.S. banks collectively have the wherewithal to underwrite the raising of the Debt Ceiling. As Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan and other leading bankers meet with Mr Obama today, certainly that will be on the agenda of discussion.
In August 2011 the U.S. banks collectively had over $1.45 Trillion, and enabled that raise. It will be good news to hear what they may be willing to underwrite this time. Certainly the money has swirled around the system, enabling people buy the houses and cars and television sets and sofa sets and iPads which they love, and swelled the coffers of companies such as Apple and Oracle and billionaire Carl Icahn. All that is really needed is for such companies and people to continue to create more employment in the private sector, and for government to continue to serve the people effectively.
The lifting of the shutdown would be great, and would be welcome for people who are visiting America, so that their trips are joyful in seeing the monuments they have come to see.
A rethink on what has led to the shutdown can only help the goodwill of America, and the prosperity of her own people.
Thanks for visiting my blog and website, I hope you found something interesting to read.
There seems a constant swirl of stacks of information, both online and in printed form.
Most of the relevant information that makes an impact on affairs is both time sensitive and scarce,
that is the information that I try and gather and interpret, for my own reference as well as to share with my readers.
I wrote these blogs this month....I am happy a lot of people enjoy reading my take on various topical issues, with several thousand visiting my blog just last Friday and Saturday, especially from Chicago.
Hello guys, wear your thinking caps on...
Mr Bernanke's penultimate testimony before he leaves the Fed.
Forward guidance and the UK housing market
Light a cancle...
Thanks for visiting my website
Notes from the LDS chapel, Ilford
Germany a good model of employment
The paradox in inflation
Stimulus? Taper? Where we headed?
Bank of England forward guidance.
Have a read, and let me know what you think.
In the meantime, thanks to all the readers who have written in their
compliments and suggestions.