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The price of Gold

2015 may be a very good year, but caution ahead

Two Thousand and Fifteen may become a very good year, for most nations.

In China, where they recently cut rates and introduced a Trillion Dollar stimulus, the dynamics of internal growth and development as well as for the export markets suggests robust growth.  The Honourable Xi Jinping is quoted as saying that China will achieve a new standard in progress.  His words are welcome, and should give heart to anyone who may be fearing a slowdown in China.  The actual production and shipments overseas ( I hear huge ship loads arriving in Britain, and for the first time in many years hear the trains ferry the goods across in the middle of the night in a huge procession) testify to that.

In the U.S., the start of Prosperity which I had foreseen for November 2014 seems to have materialised, and heatmaps of happiness continue to grow for the people there, with increasing numbers of auto purchases, mortgages taken out on single family units, more people in work both seasonal and permanent, lower Oil prices (although that is a mixed blessing), and good weather, apart from the recent snow.

I see the DOW going upto 18,500* by June this year, although the prospects for 2016 may be mild, with perhaps the saving grace of Hillary Clinton becoming elected as the President.  Sentator Jeb Bush is a strong candidate, but I detect the dynamics at play will ensure the Democrats will again have tenure of the highest position in the land. 

*I am just expressing my opinion, based on the logics of what I perceive.  People should speculate at their own risk.

The Oil producing nations will have to work in co-operation and ensure a stable oil price, otherwise their dollar-denominated revenues will not meet the cost of their imports, and may lead to ques outside empty supermarkets, waiting to buy stocks (g00ds) which are being rationed, as in Venezuela. 
It makes me cringe in shock to see the situation in Ukraine, where the rebels loyal to the Soviet leadership are wrecking havoc and creating ghost towns, where life seems at 1950s levels.  Mr Putin can be generous and call these people off.  He must extricate himself from this very messy situation.  It is doing no one any good.  Once peace is restored in this region, hopefully the Rouble will recover, and help people in Russia share the common prosperity that is developing worldwide.  Oil seems to be bouncing around levels which may be optimum, and which may prove good for everybody, including the newly formed shale and fracking operators.  Mr Putin has to apply the generosity principle, and help the kindred folks in Ukraine.  That conflict is just so unnecessary, it is just like bullying people who at one time Mr Putin was willing to big a brotherly hug.  I just don't believe it.

Under Pradhanmantri Shree Modiji, India is on track for the fastest growth since Independence, although the recent industrial productions figures at 2.6 percent seem so faint.  Provided the RBI decide to enjoin the procession of Recovery and lower the benchmark repo rate, things should improve.  There is a great natural appetite for investment into India, with the right atmosphere.  Creating a major air hub to compete with what exists in the Arab Emirates may be a good raising of the bar, but let us all wait and see what will actually materialise.  But in the meantime, the commencement of building a 100 new cities seems a great vision, and Modiji has my congratulations.  I hope his BJP policymakers and bureaucrats will ensure implementation and fulfilment of such measures.

The caution that I mentioned....while times are good, save a little for the future, and build some reserves for the second half of 2016, when it will all come in handy.


May the Lord's blessings be upon all.


Kind regards,

Durudarshan H. Dadlani


(c) Copyright. 



 





My blogs over last two weeks, w/e 8/12/12

Hello, friends and readers,
 
My blogs over the last two weeks were as follows :-
  - Baba Ramdev medicine in Ilford
  - Gifts - for Christmas and all year round
  -  Goods lost on aircraft - check on missingx.com
  -  Austerity or Growth?
  -  The Fiscal Cliff
  -  Are people buying houses in the U.S.?
  -  Free money and government grants in the USA
  -  The Chancellor's Autumn Statement
  -  The situation in Egypt
  -  Interest Rates.
 
Top Referring Traffic and Search Engines were :-
   Stumbleupon.com - tops for many, many weeks running!
   Google - always up there!
   Facebook - also
   t.co - Hello stranger?  Where you been?
 
Thanks to staff at all above, for listing my website, and to the wonderful people at
Vistaprint who maintain my website in such beautiful condition 24/7/365.  Well done!  
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 

Finally, it seems the U.K. has started to pull out of recession.

It seems the U.K. economy has just about started to come out of a long recession.  At least that is what the growth in the GDP of 1 percent for the quarter to September suggests.  The news came amidst some not so heartening news, of the closure of the Transit Vans division of Fords and a parts manufacturing plant in Dagenham, sore news for 4,000 plus employees of the giant automakers.
 
But the good news is that the U.K. is out of a recession, thanks in great part to the visitors to the London Olympics recently and the crowds who celebrated the Queen's Diamond Jubilee.  During the Olympics, some people were working 60 hours a week and earning good money, such a week is a good training for aspiring millionaires.
 
The American and European markets have see-sawed and hee-hawed recently, but I detect them now getting positive for the close of the week tomorrow.  There is just a feeling that everything will be okay, and improvements will happen.  By grace of God, that's how it should be.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 

My recent blogs to 30th August

My recent blogs are as follows:-
 
  -  Gratitude - a testimony
  -  Markets seem sideways for the moment
  -  The Paralympics - a celebration of human spirit
  -  The DOW Index - where to now?
 
Hope you continue to enjoy reading my blog.  I shall be happy to receive your comments.
 
In the meantime,
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
 
 

My blogs over this week, w/e 25th August

The economic news this week has been somewhat dismal, nothing inspiring to recap what is best not noted.  However, on the positive side, it seems car production in U.K. has picked up again, probably with good order books for export markets in developing nations.  The 0.5 percent drop in GDP was thankfully not at all bad, and the increased public sector borrowing may be a blip to offset the shutting of the Elgin platform in the North Sea.  The U.K. economy seems to be giving mixed signs, positive on balance.
 
  -  The "We must stick to Plan A" mantra is getting the wrong result.
 
The U.S. economy has entered a phase of consolidation of Recovery, with the housing figures improving as well as the manufacturing, tourism, transportation, food and other sectors.  These are leading indicators of a strong positive 2013 for the U.S.  
 
  -  Could the DOW Jones go up 500 points a month?
 
  -  Oil price is once again too high for Recovery
      (This is what will decide whether we are to avoid a double dip)
 
   -  A new reality
      (That's what readers have enjoyed reading early morning).
 
Hope you continue to read my blogs.  I'll look forward to your comments.
 
Kind regards,
Duru-darshan.
 
 
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India's "demonitsation" could have a flaw
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The Euro unification of currency and philosophy has thrown up its own challenges
The Japanese stimulus may do wonders for the world.
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Tolstoy would have been as Christ.
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With high energy prices, how can British steel industry survive? Yet survive it must.
Work hard, and work for peace....that way may be the noble, dignified way forward.
World Money Show, 8th & 9th November
Worldwide Economic Recovery
Would you borrow from your bank?
www.durudarshan.co.uk
Year of the Monkey.
Yulia Tymoshenko
Zimbabwe - may it continue with fair policies
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